Home price growth decelerated in March even as the overall housing market experienced its strongest monthly gains in 2025, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home price NSA Index.
“There will be a lot of home buyers that are perplexed by today’s market. Interest rates are high and supply in increasing, and yet home prices continue to rise nationally. Remember, though, this data is lagged,” says Zonda chief economist Ali Wolf. “We anticipate prices will continues to grow at a decelerating pace in coming months. Further, national data only tells part of the story. There are housing markets across the country where home prices have started to turn down year-over-year as buyers pullback given uncertainty.”
The index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, posted a 3.4% annual gain in March, down from a 4% annual gain in the previous month. On a month-over-month basis, the national index posted gains of 0.8%.
“This divergence between slowing year-over-year appreciation and renewed spring momentum highlighted how the housing market shifted from mere resilience to a broader seasonal recovery,” says Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Limited supply and steady demand drove prices higher across most metropolitan areas, despite affordability challenges remaining firmly in place.”
The 10-city composite index saw an annual increase of 4.8% in March, down from 5.2% in February. The 20-city composite index posted a year-over-year gain of 4.1% in March, down from 4.5% the previous month. On a month-over-month basis, the 10-city and 20-city indices posted gains of 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively.
“Notably, only 0.9% of the year-over-year increase [nationally] came from the past six months, indicating that most appreciation was front-loaded earlier in the year-long period,” says Godec. “This pattern underscored a broad cooling trend in second-half 2024 home prices even as spring 2025 arrived.”
New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities analyzed, with prices growing 8% year-over-year in March. Chicago (+6.5%) and Cleveland (+5.9%) posted the second and third largest annual home price gains in March. Tampa posted the lowest annual returns, with prices falling 2.2% year-over-year.
“These results underscored how markets that experienced sharp run-ups earlier in the cycle—particularly in the Sun Belt—continue to adjust under the weight of higher mortgage rates and strained affordability,” says Godec.
“Even as year-over-year gains slowed, U.S. home prices remained at record highs, ensuring long-term homeowners retained substantial equity,” Godec continues. “This spring’s price resurgence illustrated that seasonal demand and tight supply could reignite price growth, but it also underscored the housing market’s continued sensitivity to mortgage rates and affordability constraints.”
