Day One of the Builder 100 Conference at the Ritz-Carlton Laguna Niguel in Dana Point, California, kicked off with NAHB CEO Jim Tobin discussing the most pressing issues in the home building industry. The packed agenda throughout the day provided attendees with insights on shifts in the industry and demographic trends as well as the perspective of one of the top executives in the industry.
During his session “10 Industry Shifts No One’s Talking About (Yet),” Todd Tomalak, principal, advisory of building products for Zonda, shared research suggesting 27% of large remodeling projects could be canceled or downgraded because tariffs make them cost-prohibitive. Tomalak projected the industry should be prepared for cost increases of nearly 10%, accounting for tariffs, inflation, and knock-on costs from domestic manufacturers.
In addition to Tomalak’s insights, below are other takeaways from the Day One agenda at the Builder 100 Conference.
The United States needs to find ways to produce more lumber. During his introductory discussion of housing issues ranging from policy to tariffs to tax reform, Tobin highlighted the need for the U.S. to increase its domestic lumber production. A quarter of the lumber used in the housing industry is sourced from Canada—which is subject to a 14.5% anti-dumping rate. The duty on Canadian lumber is expected to increase to nearly 30% by the end of the summer. At the same time, Tobin said the U.S. produced 35 billion board feet in 2024 but used 48 billion.
Facing a challenge keeping up with housing demand, Tobin outlined two possible solutions: Get private companies to mill more and reopen national forests.
“We turned off the infrastructure to pull the timber out. When we don’t manage national forests they burn. We need to better manage forest by pulling more timber and milling it here. That will solve our problem,” Tobin said. “Until we build our national supply of timber, we have to go over our borders. We’ve got to solve the problem now—cut more and mill more. National forests are designed to be a crop, as beautiful as they are.”
We are nearing “peak humanity.” Parag Khanna, founder and CEO of AI-powered predictive analytics platform AlphaGeo, shared that, as a result of declining fertility rates and increasing mortality, the global population will begin to decline. As a result, demographic patterns and migration patterns will become increasingly important for home builders to sustain their businesses and build homes where people will live. Khanna posited that an “industrial renaissance” would mean that markets home to technology, clean energy, automotive, health care, and raw material sectors would drive the domestic economy.
Smaller families and affordability concerns also mean smaller homes, multigenerational living, and mixed-use, walkable communities will be in high demand, according to Khanna. With growing climate and natural disaster concerns, he said areas that combine risk mitigation and resilience will also be attractive to home buyers.
Change often feels wrong before it proves itself right. During a wide-ranging fireside chat with Zonda chief advisory officer Tim Sullivan, Lennar executive chairman and co-CEO Stuart Miller highlighted the importance of adaptability and flexibility during times of uncertainty.
“Change is uncomfortable to everybody,” Miller said when discussing the current housing landscape and the potential changes as a result of the Trump administration. “We are in the middle of a reconfiguration. It’s hard to know if we are on the right track or the wrong track or if the author will pivot and pivot properly. All we can do is look at the current environment as it evolves and adjust and adapt in sync with what’s actually happening.”
While there is no recipe or playbook for navigating through uncertainty, Miller said leadership matters.
“Leaders—real leaders—will take position and will find ways to make adjustments as those adjustments are required,” Miller said. “Leaders have the conviction and the ability to stay the course longer than the rest of the world thinks they might.”
Zonda recognizes award winners. Throughout the first day of the conference, the 2025 Builder of the Year, the Builder on the Rise, and the Hearthstone BUILDER Humanitarian Award winners were recognized.
Builder of the Year Dream Finders Homes has grown to a top 20 builder, closing more than 8,500 homes last year. Patrick Zalupski, Anabel Ramsey, Doug Moran, and Batey McGraw detailed the company’s long-term, growth-oriented vision as well as how accountability, collaboration, and culture are key elements of the builder’s identity.
Miller, Jon Jaffe, and Marshall Ames from Hearthstone BUILDER Humanitarian Award winner Lennar Foundation highlighted the organization’s numerous charitable efforts—from assisting formerly incarcerated individuals to funding cancer research and aiding natural disaster recovery efforts—and how they aim to strengthen their communities.
Andy Lett of Schuber Mitchell Homes, the 2025 Builder on the Rise, discussed his philosophy that leadership is a shared journey and how true leadership is centered around lifting up team members.
