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Following a period of stabilization in the lumber market during August and September, lumber prices began to increase in October. According to an analysis of Random Lengths data, the NAHB shared that framing lumber composite prices increased for the fifth consecutive week for the week ending Nov. 1, reaching their highest level in the calendar. Lumber prices are now 17.2% higher than they were a year ago, according to the NAHB.

The framing lumber composite price increased 2.9% for the week ending Nov. 1, and are now 8% higher than a month ago. The price of lumber futures rose 5.2% during the week and stand at a level 9.9% higher than a year ago.

Structural panel composite prices increased 1.3% from the previous week, with OSB prices increasing 4.6%. Western Fir plywood prices and Southern Yellow Pine plywood prices were both flat, according to Random Lengths data.

As prices are rising, the NAHB is also tracking several sawmill curtailments and closures that could impact lumber production in the coming months. Western Forest Products recently announced a plan to curtail production in its British Columbia sawmills by approximately 30 million board feet during the period of October to December. Canfor recently closed two British Columbia mills while curtailing production in the Southern U.S., which will eliminate a combined 670 million board feet of annual production capacity. Taken together, along with other closures and curtailments, industry groups project curtailments have reduced softwood lumber production capacity by approximately 3.1 million board feet in 2024.

As a result of changing softwood lumber prices—and the impacts of reduced productivity—the NAHB suggests the impacts could translate to the price of a new home.

“This, along with rising wages for construction workers and higher interest rates, is one of the reasons the housing market is experiencing declining affordability,” the NAHB wrote in its analysis of lumber prices.