Home prices continued to decline for the fifth consecutive month in November, according to one of the nation’s leading residential real estate measures.
The latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 7.7% annual gain in November, down from 9.2% in the previous month.
“The Case-Shiller Index continued to show some significant deceleration in home prices across the country,” says Nikolas Scoolis, manager, housing economics, for Zonda. “Despite the year-over-year gains, all 20 cities in the composite declined, and nationally the index sits almost 4% from the peak seen in June 2022.”
Overall, the National Composite Index posted a -0.6% month-over-month decline in November, according to Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
Comparable patterns were seen in the 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite. Specifically, the 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.3%, down from 8% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.8% year-over-year gain, down from 8.6% in the previous month.
In November, all 20 cities reported declines before seasonal adjustments. After seasonal adjustments, 19 cities reported declines with only Detroit increasing just 0.1%.
“These declines, of course, came after very strong price increases in late 2021 and the first half of 2022,” Lazzara says. “Despite its recent weakness, on a year-over-year basis the National Composite gained 7.7%, which is in the 74th percentile of historical performance levels.”
Notably, San Francisco had its worst year-over-year result in more than 10 years. Home prices in the area were down by -1.6% year over year, according to the report. West Coast weakness was also seen in Seattle and Portland.
In contrast, November’s best-performing cities were clustered in the Southeast. With an 18.4% year-over-year increase, Miami was the best performer, the eighth consecutive month that a Florida city has been the national leader. It was followed by Tampa, Florida, and Atlanta.
“As the Federal Reserve moves interest rates higher, mortgage financing continues to be a headwind for home prices,” Lazzara says. “Economic weakness, including the possibility of a recession, would also constrain potential buyers. Given these prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to weaken.”
During this time, many sellers have had to reevaluate their asking prices as high mortgage rates deteriorated buying power, adds Scoolis.
“It's important to note that the index is backward looking, reflecting the home buying environment in November, and does not cover the recent weeks of mortgage rate declines,” he says.