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Less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene caused nearly $50 billion in damage, CoreLogic projects 500,000 single-family and multifamily homes in the Tampa Bay and Sarasota, Florida metros are at risk from Hurricane Milton. The estimated reconstruction value of the impact is approximately $123 billion from Hurricane Milton.

The estimates by CoreLogic, a global property information, analytics, and data-enabled solutions provider, assumes Hurricane Milton will make landfall in Florida as a Category 3 storm. The hurricane was at a Category 5 status on Oct. 8 and was downgraded to Category 4 status as of Oct. 9.

“Hurricane Milton forecasts currently indicate a direct landfall over Tampa Bay as a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph,” says Jon Schneyer, director of catastrophe response at CoreLogic. “Small changes in the exact landfall location will have monumental consequences on the financial impact of this storm. A direct landfall, or one just north of Tampa Bay, would be a worst-case scenario because the winds and storm surge flooding would be most intense. A more southern landfall would reduce the impact in Tampa Bay but devastate communities along the coast near Sarasota.”

Based on the Category 3 projections, there are approximately 341,396 single-family and multifamily homes at risk in the Tampa Bay metro with an associated reconstruction cost value of $82.8 billion. There are approximately 159,961 single-family and multifamily properties at risk in Sarasota with an associated reconstruction cost value of $40.6 billion. The reconstruction cost value does not include the value of the land or lot and assumes 100% destruction of all at-risk homes. CoreLogic says the calculations are not a representation of expected damages.

The potential devastation of Hurricane Milton follows the significant impact of Hurricane Helene, which impacted Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Tennessee. According to the final data analysis conducted by CoreLogic, the total flood and wind losses caused by Hurricane Helene are estimated to be between $30.5 billion and $37.5 billion. The estimate includes wind loss as well as insured and uninsured storm surge and inland flood loss for residential and commercial properties.

“When intense storm surge and flooding events, like Hurricane Helene, reach regions that are infrequently affected by natural hazards, we can expect to see damage to homes without flood insurance coverage. The fact that so much damage was concentrated outside the Special Flood Hazard Areas makes it challenging to realize the full extent of impact to uninsured homeowners,” Schneyer says. “Thankfully FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program is expected to provide up to $6.5 billion of insurance for the recovery efforts, which will help bring much needed recovery aid to the affected areas.”