There is no doubt that the election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States leaves many builders large and small pondering what the next four years will hold. The home building industry is beholden to dozens of regulations, from local, state and federal branches of government. One category of regulations that has received particular scrutiny over the past 10 years is building energy codes.

Significant changes to the nation’s model energy codes over the past decade have made them a particular target of anti-regulatory attacks. In an August speech at the NAHB's mid-year board meeting, Trump spoke of cutting taxes and regulation. So, how might President Trump’s administration impact the nation’s model energy codes?

Let’s focus on the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC), which is the model energy code for residential construction of three stories or less, and examine the federal government’s role in code development, adoption, and compliance efforts. The IECC is not developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Rather, the IECC is developed by a private, non-profit organization called the International Code Council (ICC). The ICC follows a public and transparent consensus process for developing its building codes, which are updated every three years by a final vote of the nation’s building code enforcement officials at the federal, state, and local levels. Federal statutes in the Energy Conservation and Production Act require that DOE participate in the development of the IECC (as an ordinary participant) and issue a “determination” (within one year of publication) as to whether or not the new version of the IECC is more or less efficient than the version that it updates. When the new version is determined to be more efficient, states are then required, within two years, to certify to DOE that they have reviewed the new code and decided whether or not they intend to make changes to their existing residential energy code.

Many think the requirement for states to review the new code has an impact on adoption, but realistically the statute gives DOE no enforcement authority and therefore lacks effectiveness. What actually happens is that states and local jurisdictions adopt more recent versions of the energy code at their own pace and through their own stakeholder engagement processes. Therefore, in the absence of any real federal involvement, cities, counties, and states are adopting more-stringent energy codes because they see the value to homeowners in reducing their energy bills, as well as the benefit to builders and trades of operating on a level playing field based on one minimum standard.

Under a presidential administration and Congress in which members, including the president-elect, believe climate change is a hoax, it’s unlikely that a Trump agenda will pay much heed to advancing energy efficiency. However, it also is unlikely that it will backtrack on current code stringency, given the development process that has been established. With increased energy code enforcement continuing to show strong benefits, with estimates of a 600 percent return on investment on enforcement by local jurisdictions and potential savings from achieving compliance of more than $126 billion in energy bills by 2040, this is good news.

In short, energy codes will persist in the upcoming years as one of the most effective means of saving energy, thanks to states’ proclivity for adopting more stringent energy codes, industry’s vested interest in engaging in the process, and the federal government’s unobtrusive level of involvement. A strong, independently developed, national model energy code, that is adopted by cities and states at their own discretion, is unlikely to be affected by a Trump presidency. Optimistically, if Trump is successful in igniting a strong economy, more homes will be built, they will continue to meet strong energy codes, and homeowners will enjoy the benefits of living in more-efficient homes. Regardless of federal administration, it’s likely that the powerful combination of states and industry will continue to carry forward the energy-saving legacy of energy codes in the United States.