Around the year 500 B.C., the Greek philosopher Heraclitus said, “Nothing endures but change.” Over the centuries his wisdom has proven correct time and again—except, for the most part, in the field of custom home building. True, new developments have taken place in materials science, mechanical systems, and building products, but generally speaking, the way a custom home comes together hasn't changed much in the past 100 years. “The home building industry has always moved very, very slowly,” says timber-frame guru Tedd Benson of Bensonwood Homes in Walpole, N.H., who for years has been calling on his fellow builders to evolve more quickly. “Historically, it moved even more slowly. It was the same for about a thousand years, and then there were many changes at the end of the 19th century and in the first part of the 20th century—mostly concerning the integration of various mechanical systems.” Custom builders tend to be skeptical of anything new, and with good reason: Plenty of unproven products and techniques have bombed over the years, leaving unhappy homeowners in their wake. “The skepticism is justifiable,” says John Connell, an architect and builder in Warren, Vt. “Builders learn what they know through a slow process of doing it. If they make a mistake, they lose a lot of money.”
But the next 10 years could be a period of rapid evolution for custom building. Spurred by the economic recession and environmental realities, consumers are looking for homes that provide more value and consume less energy. Green building has vaulted from the fringes smack into the mainstream, and that's where it will stay. “Green is in its infancy, as far as being in the public consciousness,” says Richard Mandell of Sandy Spring Builders in Bethesda, Md. On a related note, more builders are using (or considering) some form of prefabrication for high-end custom homes. The three major levels of prefab—pre-made building components, panelization, and modular construction—are attracting more interest from high-end custom builders than ever before.
Eco Economy
Helped along by LEED for Homes and other environmental rating systems, the soaring popularity of green building has already begun to create ripples of change throughout the industry. Many custom builders have happily switched to using recycled drywall, low- or no-VOC paints, and flyash concrete, at little or no increased cost to the client. “In the past, when the painters were painting, no other subs could really be in there because of the smell,” observes Bob Voertman, residential project manager at Engelmann Inc., in Ketchum, Idaho. “Now you can have other people in there at the same time. So even though green products might cost a little more, there might be savings in the overall cost of the job.”
Foam insulation, passive solar design, radiant heat, and high-efficiency HVAC systems also have become de rigueur for new custom homes. “We're seeing people be very proactive and energy-conscious to make sure they're saving their money,” says Randy Gardner of North Kingstown, R.I.-based Gardner Woodwrights. More custom home buyers are requesting geothermal heating and cooling. And photovoltaics, although still far from common, are gaining ground; in The American Institute of Architects' (AIA's) 2nd Quarter 2009 “Home Trends Design Survey,” released in October 2009, 55 percent of respondents reported that client interest in solar panels was on the rise.
The point, according to Nate Kredich, vice president of residential market development at the U.S. Green Building Council, is that cutting-edge items can turn into staples more quickly than we might realize. “Custom building is really the research lab for the green builder movement,” he says. “Things that are mainstream today were pushed by the custom builder five, 10, 15 years ago.” Kredich predicts that the cost of buying and installing green building products, particularly energy-related items such as solar panels, will drop by 2020. “I think the whole photovoltaics industry is going to turn on its head between now and the end of the next decade,” he says. “Prices will come down dramatically, and the efficiency of the system will improve as the output goes up.” Existing evidence supports his assertion: A report released last October by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)'s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory showed that the average cost of a solar photovoltaic power system in the United States fell by more than 30 percent from 1998 to 2008.
Builders and green experts cite LED lighting as another relatively expensive product expected to continue decreasing in price over the next few years. Like computer chips, LEDs and OLEDs (organic light-emitting diodes) are made using semiconductor technology. The conventional wisdom is that their cost will plummet over time, much the way the cost of computers has. “They'll get this price down,” assures James Brodrick, Ph.D., an electrical engineer with the DOE. According to Brodrick, lighting makes up at least 10 to 11 percent of a home's total electricity use, and long-lasting LED bulbs could cut monthly lighting bills by 80 percent. “By 2020, I would expect LED lighting to be in quite a few homes,” he says. “Compact fluorescents will probably be around, but LEDs and OLEDs will be more efficient than any CFL.”
Green for Good
The push by both public and private entities to develop energy-efficient products indicates a strong long-term market for energy-conserving homes. It may have been spurred by the recent economic crisis and subsequently enacted federal tax credits, but it's not likely to disappear once the economy rebounds. “There is the perception now that as the economy grows, we will see a strong spiking of energy costs again,” says Kermit Baker, Ph.D., chief economist for the AIA and director of the Remodeling Futures Program at Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies. “There's a sense that we should be concerned about future energy costs.” Forward-thinking builders are using buzzwords such as “net-zero home” and “high-performance building.” A handful are following the ambitious Passive House standard created in Germany. “Passive House has just started to explode in the U.S.,” says Stephen Aiguier of Green Hammer in Portland, Ore.
Also, government energy-use regulations are tightening. The 2009 version of the International Energy Conservation Code, which serves as a model for municipalities nationwide, was 15 percent more energy-efficient than the 2006 version. Green building consultant Jay Hall bets it will be even tougher next time. “For 2012, the expectation is that it will be another 15 percent higher,” he says. “The code is going green.”
Energy efficiency may be on everyone's radar, but the sleeper environmental issue of the next decade, builders and environmentalists say, will be water conservation. “We have seen the conversation taken up a notch recently in regions where water is not typically considered a problem,” reports Virginia Lee, team leader for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's WaterSense program. She points to drought, population growth, and aging infrastructure as factors in anticipated water shortages, and notes that the availability and performance of water-efficient products have improved greatly in the past couple of years.
