Renter perceptions about the ease of obtaining a mortgage declined substantially from the prior year, according to results from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) Housing Survey. Approximately 74.2% renters believe obtaining a mortgage is somewhat difficult or very difficult; a year ago, 65.8% of respondents stated obtaining a mortgage was somewhat or very difficult.

Additionally, renters’ self-assessed probability of owning a home decreased by 4.3 percentage points to 40.1%, a series low.

Households expect home price growth to increase to 5.1% over the next year; a year ago, households predicted annual home price growth of 2.6%.

The home price growth expectations are above the pre-pandemic mean of 4.2% but below the 2022 series high of 7% annual price growth expectations. The increase in home price growth expectations is broad-based across the demographic groups surveyed but is particularly high among respondents in the South.

In addition to home price growth, respondents indicate rent price growth expectations of 9.7% for the next 12 months, up from 8.2% a year ago. The rent price growth expectations are the second largest in the history of the SCE Housing Survey.

On average, households perceive that national mortgage rates are higher than pre-pandemic levels and expect rates to rise further in the future. Households expect mortgage rates to rise to 8.7% a year from now and increase to levels as high as 9.7% in three years’ time. However, surveyed households also believe there is a 61% chance mortgage rates will fall over the next 12 months, a series high for the SCE Housing Survey.

Over two-thirds of survey respondents indicate that buying property in their ZIP code is a “very good” or “somewhat good” investment. While the readings are slightly below those of the past three years, the level of optimism is above the prevailing sentiments of the pre-pandemic period, according to the New York Fed. The share of respondents reporting housing is a “bad” or “somewhat bad” investment increased to 9.1% from 7.9% a year ago.

Expectations of residential mobility in the next 12 months—the percent change of moving to a different primary residence—fell to a new series low of 13.4%.

The SCE Housing Survey has been fielded annually as part of the broader Survey of Consumer Expectations since 2014. The SCE is a nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads.