Price growth accelerated in July following a stagnant month in June, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index.
The data series, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.0% annual change in prices in July. Additionally, 19 of the 20 major metro markets analyzed reported month-over-month price increases in July.
“Even as rates continue to climb and total volume declines, the lack of available supply has allowed those with homes for sale to capitalize and push prices higher,” says Nik Scoolis, manager, housing economics, for Zonda. “There will continue to be upward pressure on prices until significantly more supply is unlocked.”
The 10-City Composite Index recorded a 0.9% increase, improving from a 0.5% loss in June. The 20-City Composite Index posted a marginal 0.1% year-over-year increase, reversing from a 1.2% loss in the previous month.
“We have previously noted that home prices peaked in June 2022 and fell through January of 2023, declining by 5.0% in those seven months,” says Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The increase in prices that began in January has now erased the earlier decline, so that July represents a new all-time high for the National Composite. Moreover, this recovery in home prices is broadly based.”
Lazzara notes that 10 of the 20 cities included in the index have reached all-time high levels. Lazzara says all of the cities at all-time highs are in Eastern and Central time zones; all of the cities not at all-time highs are in the Pacific and Mountain time zones, with the exception of Dallas and Tampa.
“The Midwest (+3.2%) continues as the nation’s strongest region, followed by the Northeast (+2.3%),” Lazzara says. “The West (-3.8%) and Southwest (-3.6%) remain the weakest regions.”
Year-over-year price gains were steepest in Chicago (+4.4%), Cleveland (+4.0%), and New York (+3.8%) in July. Eight cities reported lower prices in the year ending July 2023 versus the year ending June 2023. Eighteen cities showed a “positive trend in price acceleration” compared to the prior month.
“On a year-over-year basis, the Revenge of the Rust Belt continues,” Lazzara says. “The three best-performing metropolitan areas in July were Chicago, Cleveland, and New York, repeating the ranking we saw in May and June. The bottom of the leader board shuffled somewhat, with Las Vegas (-7.2%) and Phoenix (-6.6%) this month’s worst performers.”
Before seasonal adjustments, the U.S. National Index, 10-City, and 20-City Composites all posted 0.6% month-over-month increases in July.
“On a year-to-date basis, the National Composite has risen 5.3%, which is well above the median full calendar year increase in more than 35 years of data,” Lazzara says. “Although the market’s gains could be truncated by increases in mortgage rates or by general economic weakness, the breadth and strength of this month’s report are consistent with an optimistic view of future results.”