Following extreme volatility in 2020 and 2021, changes in lumber prices returned to more regular seasonal trends in 2024, according to Madison’s Lumber Reporter.
In the calendar year, lumber prices remained within a band of approximately $150 per thousand board feet. The return to regularity in lumber prices also provides the construction industry with “sureness” in making plans for new projects in 2025, Keta Kosman, publisher of Madison’s Lumber Reporter, tells Builder.
“Now that interest rates have started to go back down, and the uncertainty of the U.S. presidential election is resolved, the U.S. home buying consumer is returning to the sense of confidence which was more usual in recent years past,” says Kosman.
Pricing Patterns to End 2024
The most recent data from Madison’s Lumber Reporter—for the week ending Dec. 20, 2024—indicates prices were $470 per thousand board feet, down 5% from the previous week and down 7% from November levels.
The price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2x4—the benchmark softwood lumber item—was $435 per million board feet in the week ending Dec. 20, down 6% from a month ago. Compared to the same week last year, the benchmark item was 5% higher. Compared to Dec. 2022 levels, Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2x4 prices in 2024 were 12% higher.
“The annual seasonal Holiday break loomed large in mid-December, bringing with it the usual slowdown in lumber sales. Prices dropped slightly to reflect weak demand,” Kosman says. “Most customers had already ordered, before U.S. Thanksgiving, whatever remaining wood they needed for the end of [2024].”
Kosman says the prevailing strategy for those in the lumber industry was to end 2024 with no inventory on-hand by selling out any remaining wood at lumber yards before the turn of the year.
2024 Production Patterns
While the volumes of lumber manufactured in both the United States and Canada have recovered from dips at the end of 2023, the levels are still low on a historical basis. According to the most recent data from the Western Wood Products Association (WWPA), U.S. lumber production for the first nine months of 2024 fell 4% to 27,504 million board feet compared to the same period in 2024.
In Canada, lumber production volume for the first nine months of 2024 was 15,490 million board feet, essentially flat compared to 15,257 million board feet in the same period of 2023.
