When I worked in Houston, a Disney theme park rumor would circulate in the commercial real estate world every few years. It obviously never happened there, but in the early 1990s those kind of talks were more than rumor in Haymarket, Virginia, a quiet suburb approximately 35 miles west of Washington, D.C. Using shell corporations to hide its identity, the Disney Corp. stealthily bought up or optioned 3,000 acres of land just north of Interstate 66. Then, in 1993, Disney announced that it would be developing Disney's America, a theme park that would celebrate the history of the United States. The $600 million project was to open in 1998, and it had the backing of the governor of Virginia, the state General Assembly, the mayor of Haymarket, the local chamber of commerce, and economic development professionals.
As you might guess, there was some opposition the project as well. Some historians opposed the massive development being so close to Manassas National Battlefield Park, and environmental conservationists objected to the increased pollution and the destruction of natural resources. Furthermore, land-owning gentry in nearby Fauquier County did not want their rural way of life threatened. All of this, combined with public relations missteps by Disney, led to the shocking announcement in September 1994 that the company was abandoning the project.
The work of land preservation in this part of Virginia started long before the Disney fiasco, and it continues today. The map below highlights in red western Loudoun County, Clarke County, Fauquier County, and the designated rural area in Prince William County often referred to as the "Rural Crescent." This outlined area of roughly 1,250 square miles is larger than Rhode Island but accounts for only 5% of Northern Virginia’s new-home starts. Nearly all of the outlined area, excepting some local municipalities, restrict residential development to no more than one unit for every 10 acres, and some zones are limited to one unit for every 50 acres.
The area to the east includes eastern Loudoun County, eastern Prince William County, Fairfax County, Arlington County, and the city of Alexandria. This region of nearly 900 square miles accounts for 50% of new-home starts in Northern Virginia, though construction activity is way down due to a scarcity of land. The current rate of 4,500 starts per year is down from over 16,000 units per year in the mid-2000s. While there is now much less new-home activity in this closer-in portion of Northern Virginia, housing has become denser while new-home prices have risen to some of the highest in the country.
Meanwhile, the more distant and affordable suburbs to the west account for 45% of all new-home starts in Northern Virginia, which is up from less than a 25% share in 2011. Home builders were burned by overdevelopment in this area in the years following the mid-2000s boom, but many are returning here today. The prospects of remote work and the desire for entry-level homeownership among millennials are making this area a viable destination for development. Still, real estate interests can't help but be nostalgic for the “what if” should just half of Fauquier County open up for development. It won’t happen, but if it did, it would be like Disneyland for home builders.
