Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November while job growth for the previous two months were upwardly revised by 56,000, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Job gains were most prominent in the health care, leisure and hospitality, government, and social assistance sectors.
The unemployment rate and the number of unemployed people in November were essentially unchanged at 4.2% and 7.1 million, respectively.
“The [November] report overall shows more softening in the labor market. The unemployment rate is now above 4.2%, the household survey again showed a large drop in employment, and more households reported spells of long-term unemployment,” says Mortgage Bankers Association senior vice president and chief economist Mike Fratantoni. “Per the JOLTS results from October, the hiring rate continues to decline. While we are not seeing a pickup in layoffs, new entrants and individuals who lose jobs are having a more difficult time regaining employment.”
In November, the number of long-term unemployed—those jobless for 27 weeks or more—was little changed from 1.7 million. The measure is above where it was a year ago at 1.2 million. In November 2024, the long-term unemployed accounted for 23.2% of all unemployed people. The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job, at 5.5 million, was also essentially unchanged in November.
The November labor force participation rate was essentially unchanged at 62.5% while the employment-population ratio was little changed at 59.8%.
“The payroll gains continue to be concentrated in just a few sectors, government, health care, and leisure and hospitality,” Fratantoni says. “The rebound followed a net loss of private sector jobs in October with the impact of the hurricanes. Wage growth remained steady at 4% on an annual basis.”
In the November jobs report, the change in employment for September was revised up by 32,000 to 255,000 and the change for October was revised up by 24,000 to 36,000.
“Fed officials have painted to their ‘data dependence’ when it comes to future rate cuts,” Fratantoni says. “These data support a cut at the December meeting, and MBA forecasts that the Fed will continue to reduce short-term rates in 2025, although they are likely to slow the pace of cuts.”
