Housing starts in February were down 8.7% from January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,162,000, 9.9% below the February 2018 rate of 1,290,000, the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced Tuesday morning.

Single‐family housing starts fell even further in February , down 17% from January to a rate of 805,000, 10.6% below the level of February, 2018. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 352,000, up 23.5% from January but down 5.4% year-over-year.

Building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,296,000, 1.6% below the revised January rate of 1,317,000 and 2.0% below the February 2018 rate of 1,323,000. Single‐family authorizations in February were at a rate of 821,000, flat with the revised January figure of 821,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 439,000 in February, down 2.9% from January but up 12.3% from a year earlier.

Housing completions in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,303,000, 4.5% above the revised January estimate of 1,247,000 and is 1.1% above the February 2018 rate of 1,289,000. Single‐family housing completions in February were at a rate of 816,000, 10.0% below the revised January rate of 907,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 473,000.

Joel Kan, the Mortgage Bankers Association's associate vp of economic and industry forecasting analyzed the report.

“Single-family housing starts suffered a big drop in February, to 805,000 starts from 970,000 starts. Residential construction had dipped towards the end of 2018, and the January surge was thought to be a possible sign of a bounce back. Unfortunately, we are back down to November and December levels," Kan stated.

"On a year-over-year basis, single-family starts have dropped in four of the last five months. Single-family permits remained flat over the month, but those too have shown several months of annualized declines. The weakness in this month’s data may be a sign that builders continue to face problems with labor shortages and lot availability, even as we expect demand to pick up going into the spring buying season, fueled by lower mortgage rates.”

Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, sounded a familiar note in his analysis. "Housing starts falling in February is not what is needed to assure a sustainable housing market recovery, said Yun. "Home prices will rise in 2019 for sure."

He continued, "However, the home price increase could be too strong as home builders are insufficiently constructing new homes. The imbalance between demand and supply can once again lead to a case of home price appreciation outpacing income growth for the eighth straight year. That is good for homeowners accumulating wealth but not healthy for the broader market as it limits homeownership opportunity, especially among the millennials and widens inter-generational wealth inequality. More affordable homes need to be built to assure market balance and better access to homeownership. "

Yun concluded, "The home price deceleration as reflected in the latest Case-Shiller price index of 4.3% is encouraging but only when compared to what happened to January. NAR’s median home price gain of only 3.6% in February was also welcome news. However, unless housing starts rise consistently, home prices could soon re-accelerate upwards and lead to unaffordable housing conditions. A better scenario is more construction driving home price growth of around 3%, while income rushes ahead faster to about 4%, thereby improving housing affordability.”