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Real GDP increased in the third quarter after declining during the first two quarters of the year, and data from the GDP report indicates inflation is cooling, according to an analysis by the NAHB. The development does not alter the association’s projection of a “mild recession” in 2023 as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten financial conditions.

The GDP price index rose 4.1% for the third quarter, down from a 9.0% increase in the second quarter. Also, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price Index, capturing inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior, rose 4.2% in the third quarter, down sharply from 7.3%.

According to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6% in the third quarter, following a 0.6% decrease in the second quarter and a decline of 1.6% in the first quarter.

Consumer spending rose at an annual rate of 1.4% in the third quarter, down from a 2.0% increase in the second quarter. An increase in services was partly offset by a decrease in goods services. While expenditures on services increased 2.8% at an annual rate, goods spending decreased 1.2% at an annual rate, led by motor vehicles and parts (-11.7%) as well as food and beverages (-3.8%).

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