31: Charleston-North Charleston, South Carolina
Total new-home closings: 2,882
Populations: 727,689
The good: Single-family permits registered 17% higher year over year in March 2015.
The bad: September and October of 2014 proved rough, registering steep drop offs in the new-home market year over year, signaling possible decline.
The bottom line: Is yet to be seen, but based on March permits, builders are continuing on.
The new-home market in Charleston showed signs of decline at the end of 2014, with the total of new homes sold over the 12-month period ending in October at 1,072, down from 1,265 for the period ending in September. Meanwhile, closings in the month of October declined year over year by 90.6%. Market share among new homes rose year over year for two straight years in February, from 16% in 2013 to 23% in 2015, but those gains are somewhat moot for builders of single-family homes, which declined in market share from 75% to 58% over the same period. None of these factors seems to have held builders back in March 2015, however, when single-family permits registered 17% higher year over year, proving they’re still with this market.
See complete Charleston market data >
32: St. Louis, Missouri-Illinois
Total new-home closings: 2,834
Population: 2,806,207
The good: A drop in market share among existing homes for foreclosures and REOs of 10.8% year over year occurred in February 2015.
The bad: Nearly everything is down as of February 2015 for builders—closings, prices, and square footages.
The bottom line: Keeping the ball rolling in this town may require learning to work with smaller prices, smaller homes, and smaller sales numbers.
The new-home market in St. Louis showed drops across the board in February 2015. Closings fell year over year by 59.3%, following a 46.3% decline in January, setting the total new homes sold over a 12-month period ending in February at 560—35 fewer than the same period a year prior. Meanwhile, the percentage of overall closings held by new homes also took a hit, declining from 1.8% to just 0.7% overall, while the average new-home price dropped 39.5% year over year to $227,575 per unit in February. Those prices may show the effects of a decrease in average unit size of 3.2%, to 2,181 square feet in February. Going forward, builders may need to capitalize on smaller sales—both in size, price and total closings.
See complete St. Louis market data >
33: Columbus, Ohio
Total new-home closings: 2,829
Population: 1,994,536
The good: Unemployment is low and there’s a decreasing presence among REOs and foreclosures.
The bad: Signs of serious contraction set in amid early 2015.
The bottom line: With the average new-home price falling to become more competitive, along with low unemployment and foreclosures receding, Columbus has a good shot at staying strong.
’The new-home market in Columbus took a year-over-year plunge in early 2015, with just 11 closings occurring in February—down from 112 the year prior—and 16 in January, down from 117 a year earlier. Barring changes, early indications point to the possibility for less than half of the closings that placed this area on the Local Leaders list occurring in 2015 (based on a total of 1,125 new homes sold over the 12-month period ending in February). Indicators of a possible turnaround include a decrease among the average sale price for new homes from $296,413 to $253,064 year over year in February, as well as the share of REOs and foreclosures, which decreased from 41.9% to 32.4%. Unemployment also remained a full percentage point below the national average in March 2015, at just 4.5%. A 28% year-over-year increase in year-to-date single-family permits registering in March 2015 provides hope.
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34: The Villages, Florida
Total new-home closings: 2,671
Population: 114,350
The good: The market has given consistent, record-setting performances for 14 years running.
The bad: Downsides simply aren’t applicable to this area.
The bottom line: With nearly a decade and a half of first-place trophies on its shelf as one the nation’s top-performing communities, there’s no losing here.
Though it may not be the largest, few—if any—metro statistical areas compare to America’s champion of planned communities. Since its inception in 2001, this development has held the spotlight, year over year delivering the steadiest stream of annual starts in the nation, becoming the most successful master planned community (MPC) in history and eventually its own metro statistical area. A decade after its start, The Villages remained on top of Metrostudy’s top MPCs list, accounting for around 38% of all starts production in Central Florida. And since its 10-year anniversary, this community hasn’t looked back—consistently producing annual starts in the mid-2,000 figures. With the area delivering more lots over the 12-month period ending in the second quarter of 2014 than any other in the region, it’s clear that there’s no stopping this freight train in Central Florida.
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35: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida
Total new-home closings: 2,644
Population: 679,513
The good: A major rebound from the pits of the Great Recession continues.
The bad: A dark past is clearly in this area’s rearview mirror.
The bottom line: With numbers increasing over the course of the first quarter in 2015, the recession is an afterthought for builders in this region.
After sinking to the lowest depths of the Great Recession and being written off for dead, in 2012 the Cape Coral-Fort Myers area proved it was ready for a bona fide turnaround. By the second quarter of 2014, closings amid Southwest Florida’s housing market were up 31% year over year compared with 2013. Then, in August 2014, the area ranked third among Metrostudy’s Top Markets—according to outlook and market health—showing rapid increases in demand. In March 2015, year-over-year numbers showed that the area continues to rise in new-home closings and average pricing—with closings up by 20.6% year over year. With 2,586 new homes sold over the 12-month period ending in March 2015 and year-to-date single-family permits up by 28% year over year that same month, indications point to the close out of another great year for builders.
See complete Cape Coral market data >
36: Salt Lake City, Utah
Total new-home closings: 2,627
Population: 1,153,340
The good: A steady recovery has taken place since 2011, driven by strong population growth and job increases.
The bad: There were signs of leveling in early 2015.
The bottom line: It stands to be seen whether 2015 marks a year of decline, but a 19% decrease in year-to-date single-family permits year over year in March may hint at builders’ read on the market.
Since 2011, Salt Lake’s new-home market has enjoyed a strong recovery year after year, driven by job gains, population growth, and a backlog of buyers, but early 2015 statistics show that recovery may be slowing. The market’s heyday arrived in mid-2013, when the region showed serious momentum through 33,300 new jobs registering over a 12-month period and a 29% increase in new-home starts year over year. In the third quarter of 2013, starts registered their highest per any single quarter since 2007. Was that the peak? Possibly. But for the most part, 2014 proved a repeat. In March 2015, however, new-home closings sank by 6.8% year over year, following a 14.9% decline in February, while the average price of new homes rose by 3.0% year-over-year. Whether this marks a turning point remains to be seen.
See complete Salt Lake City market data >
37: Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade, California
Total new-home closings: 2,605
Population: 2,244,397
The good: Tagged as a high-performing metro market, this area’s unemployment finally neared the national average in March 2015.
The bad: Current new-home market levels hint at a lack of sustainability, as first-time buyers are squeezed out of the equation.
The bottom line: While ultimately it’s hard to say, 2015 looks to be a turning point at which the new-home market will level off in the region.
While the Sacramento market closed out strong in 2014, several indicators over the year and stretching into early 2015 raise concerns about market leveling. First signs showed amid second-quarter 2014 results, when annual starts registered their first decrease in three years. Meanwhile, the average base price for new single-family homes rose 8% year over year to $438,000, squeezing out first-time buyers. As of May 2015, the region showed concern for the effects historic droughts may have on its area’s new-home market via water restrictions, and news reports surfaced tagging the region for a plateau in its recovery period. Meanwhile, market data provider Clear Capital ranked Sacramento 13th among its “Highest Performing Major Metro Markets” in May 2015, but warned that, “Though May’s top performing markets continue to see improvements, no one market is on pace to match the rates of growth observed over the last 12 months.”
See complete Sacramento market data >
38: Kansas City, Missouri-Kansas
Total new-home closings: 2,596
Population: 2,071,133
The good: The market share of detached single-family units increased in February 2015 to 97.1% of new-home closings.
The bad: Early 2015 market indicators show a decrease as prices rise and average square footage figures drop.
The bottom line: While the start of 2015 may have raised some eyebrows, February showed promise that those changes may level. Year-to-date single-family permits were up year over year in March by 11%, possibly indicating that there’s still confidence in the region.
Early 2015 didn’t prove strong for the Kansas City market, with a 34.3% year-over-year decrease in new-home closings in January, though February showed hope for a leveling among decreases, with a narrower drop at 25.3%. The total of new homes sold over a 12-month period also dropped year over year in the period ending February from 1,218 to 1,195. At the same time, the average price of new homes gained year-over-year in February to $336,212 per unit. If there’s any good news for single-family home builders, it’s that the detached market grew year over year in February from 93.4% to 97.1%, while attached units forfeited 3.7% of their share. Unfortunately, some of those gains may be washed out because of fewer square feet sold, as there was a 17% decrease year over year in the average size of new homes.
See complete Kansas City market data >
39: Boise City, Idaho
Total new-home closings: 2,487
Population: 664,422
The good: The market has proved it can withstand losing entry-level buyers and increasing prices.
The bad: A year-over-year drop occurred in the average unit size in March 2015. (And that’s about it.)
The bottom line: With a little help from an outstandingly low unemployment rate and gentle REO/foreclosure markets, builders have proved they can’t lose in Boise.
Builders in Boise City might feel cocky coming out of early 2015, having proved they can’t lose, even under conditions that impede other markets. Second quarter 2014 data showed that—unlike some areas—Boise’s new-home market can grow even as prices have risen, squeezing entry-level buyers out of the new-home marketplace. In February 2015, the market showed that wasn’t a one-time victory when—yet again—closings increased year over year by 13.1% despite a 3.5% increase in the average sale price. March followed with a more modest 4.3% increase in closings, but nonetheless paralleling a 2.5% increase in prices. There also were signs of stabilization in March. Relatively benign REO and foreclosure markets along with unemployment rates that clocked in at 1.6% below the national average in March 2015 certainly don’t hurt this market’s near future.
See complete Boise City market data >
40: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Michigan
Total new-home closings: 2,438
Population: 4,296,611
The good: Unemployment showed a steep drop from 9.1% to 6.4% year over year in March 2015.
The bad: Overall, the market shows signs of weakening.
The bottom line: Following market decreases and price increases, year-to-date permits shrinking in March 2015 may be evidence of builders taking a cautious approach to a weakening market.
As Motor City mounted a comeback in unemployment in March 2015, with a year-over-year decrease from 9.1% to 6.4%, new-home closings dropped by 67.2% year over year, following a 66.2% drop in February. Meanwhile, year-to-date closing figures were down year over year from 1,962 to 1,831 in the 12-month period ending in March. The overall market share of new homes also decreased year over year in March, slipping from 3.2% of the total market in March 2014 to 1.3% in 2015. Add to that a surge among new-home prices of 23.7% year over year, and the first months of 2015 pose the threat of a weakening market. A decrease in year-to-date permit totals for single-family homes of 8% year over year in March may indicate that builders are moving forward with general caution.
See complete Detroit market data >
Don’t forget to also check out BUILDER’S 2015 Local Leaders
