A big story of the COVID-19 pandemic has centered on where people decide to move to, especially as many workers have become untethered to their office commutes.

In Washington state, the Office of Financial Management releases an annual accounting of every population center statewide. The rate of growth is benchmarked for the month of April each year, and the findings are released in June.

So how did the pandemic impact the rate of population growth among municipalities throughout Washington? Statewide, Washington added 110,725 people, a population increase of 1.45%. This increase is actually a decline from the 1.6% growth rate experienced in each of the two years preceding the pandemic.

The map below displays the relative growth rate changes for cities/towns in the state with over 5,000 total population in 2021 (relative size of circles proportionate to population). The darker circles represent a large increase in population growth year over year, while those in the orange shade denote declines in population.

Courtesy Zonda

Most of the towns with a negative growth rate (Bellingham, Ellensburg, Pullman, Cheney, and College Place) were impacted by college students and should rebound to normal levels once campuses fully open up.

The fastest growing municipalities from 2020 to 2021 occurred on the peripheral of Washington’s largest urban markets and include Ridgefield, Black Diamond, Edgewood, West Richland, Arlington, and Bonney Lake.

Courtesy Zonda

Most of the aforementioned communities had been exhibiting robust growth prior to COVID, but the pandemic has accelerated the drive to the exurbs in pursuit of affordable pricing and the tolerance for longer office commutes, if at all.

Ridgefield had the state’s fastest rate of population growth last year at 18.3%, adding 1,790 new residents from April 2020 to April 2021. Together with Vancouver, Battle Ground, and Camas, Clark County’s municipalities have shown an impressive rate of population growth and remain popular with home buyers looking to duck state income taxes over the river. Last year’s upheaval in downtown Portland, Oregon, and deterioration of social order add to the appeal of living in the more affordable Clark County.

Black Diamond, home to the master-planned community Ten Trails in southern King County, saw a 15.1% increase in population. Most of the new residents in Black Diamond are new-home buyers, which has been the case for the past few years since Ten Trails started selling homes. The popular Ten Trails community is an excellent data point of home buyers searching for more open spaces and affordability, farther away from the urban core (Seattle-Bellevue). With a runway of several thousand future lots, Black Diamond will continue its rapid ascension from backwater town to exurbia cluster of residents.

Edgewood, adjacent to Puyallup, is another data point to support the argument of more folks driving farther away from Seattle-Bellevue to find affordable housing. With a growth rate of 7.7% year over year, the total population of Edgewood now stands at 13,000. Similar to Black Diamond, several production builders have had an outsized influence on the recent population increase within Edgewood.

West Richland is the fastest growing submarket of the Tri-Cities in Central Washington. With a 6.4% growth rate, the town now stands at 16,710 people. The counties of Tri-Cities, Franklin and Benton, are Nos. 1 and 3, respectively, in percentage of population increase from 2010 to 2021. Franklin County has added over 21,000 new residents since 2010, and it leads all other Washington counties from the past year with a population growth of 2.8%.

Arlington’s 5.4% year-over-year population gain is a bit of anomaly in that relatively little new-home construction has occurred in the past couple of years. The assumption is made that most of the 1,100 new residents were renters, a phenomenon we see across Puget Sound with a stronger apartment demand in the outlying submarkets. Nearby cities of Lake Stevens, Stanwood, and Marysville, while not on the leaderboard in population growth, have been very popular with new-home builders the past few years. These towns all hover around a 4% year-over-year growth rate, exceeding the state’s overall average rate.

Bonney Lake, home to the master-planned community of Tehaleh, experienced a 5.4% increase in population growth. This was quite a jump from 2019 to 2020, where Bonney Lake’s 1.6% growth was just above the 1.5% statewide average. Similar to Edgewood, and most submarkets throughout Pierce County, Bonney Lake has become increasingly popular during the pandemic for entry-level buyers in search of attainable pricing.

Contrary to some assumptions, Seattle proper didn’t contract in 2020 with population losses, even as social unrest and the closure of urban attractions took a bit of luster off the Emerald City’s shine. The city had a net gain of 8,400 residents (1.1%) from the onset of pandemic constraints in April 2020 to April 2021. While in the black with growth, the 8,400 is the lowest count of population increase for Seattle in the last 10 years, and a 40% reduction compared with the gain of 13,800 residents seen from 2019 to 2020.

For Washington, it’s not just interesting to follow the rapid growth of the more rural municipalities, but also the population growth for its largest urban area, Seattle. Will people return to the city center once the pandemic is in our rearview mirror, or are its best days behind us while major employers pivot to the Eastside?

With remote and hybrid work arrangements, many have expanded their scope of geography in search of housing. But it’s important to note that most people don’t have the flexibility to work from anywhere, and many will still need to focus on shelter closer to major employment centers.

One thing is certain: The pandemic has accelerated the trend of people moving farther away from urban cores, and there is little evidence the current migration pattern will dramatically shift anytime soon.