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Nearly 100 million households are unable to afford a median priced new home in 2023. With just a $1,000 increase in the median home price, over 140,000 additional households would be priced out of the market, according to NAHB’s 2023 priced out estimates.

As usual, NAHB’s latest update includes priced out estimates for all states and metropolitan areas. The priced out numbers vary with both the sizes of the local population and the affordability of its new homes. Among all the states, Florida registered the largest number of households priced out of the market by a $1,000 increase in the median-priced home in the state (9,573), followed by Texas (9,151), and California (7,243), largely because these three states are the top three populous states.

The metropolitan area (or metro division) with the largest priced out effect, in terms of absolute numbers, is Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas, where 3,054 households will be disqualified for a new median-priced home if price goes up by $1,000. The Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, Georgia metro area registers the second largest number of priced-out households (2,626), followed by Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, Illinois metro division (2,467) and New York-Jersey City-White Plains, New York-New Jersey metro division (2,065).

These differing impacts of adding $1,000 to a new home price are largely due to different sizes of metro population and the affordability of new homes in each area. The largest priced-out effect is in the Houston, Texas metro area, where 2.1 million households are unable to afford the median-priced new home initially, and a $1,000 increase prices out an additional 3,054. The large impact in the New York-New Jersey metro division is because it contains the largest population size among all metro areas.

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