Of the top five home building markets on BUILDER’s 2022 Local Leaders list, the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro (No. 4) fares the best against climate change compared with Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (No. 1); Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land (No. 2); Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, Georgia (No. 3); and Austin-Round Rock- Georgetown (No. 5), according to Climate Alpha's HOMES tool.
A growing concern for current and future homeowners, climate change and natural disasters can weigh heavily in decisions to purchase a home. A survey from Forbes Homes shows that 64% of homeowners noted climate change and irregular weather as reasons to move from their current communities in 2022, and 62% are reluctant to move somewhere at risk of natural disasters.
Applying Climate Alpha’s proprietary Resilience Index, the tool prices the impacts of climate change on more than 100 million American homes throughout 30,000 ZIP codes between now and 2040. "Providing Americans with better analysis about the costs—and opportunities—of climate change is a first step toward preserving the American dream for decades to come," says Dr. Parag Khanna, Climate Alpha's founder and CEO.
Taking a closer look at the top five new-home markets, the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro performs better than 34% of the homes in the U.S., according to HOMES. With a -1.22% price impact of climate change, the future median value for 2030 is $418,417, but the climate-adjusted median home value will be $413,330.
In Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, the market performs better than 3% of the homes in the U.S. and has a negative price impact of climate change at -7.97% by 2030. While the future median home value for 2030 sits at $424,835, the climate-adjusted median value will be $390,958.
At No. 3 on the Local Leaders list, Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta performs better than 54% of the homes in the country and has a positive price impact of climate change at +0.34%. In 2030, the future median home value is $590,508, while the climate-adjusted median home value will be $592,526.
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler’s metro performs better than 66% of the homes in the country and has a positive price impact of climate change for 2030 at +1.2%. With a future median home value of $650,908 in 2030, the climate-adjusted median value will be $658,745.
For Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, the metro performs better than 48% of the homes in the country and has a negative price impact of climate change for 2030 at -0.13%. In 2030, the future median home value is $835,310 while the climate-adjusted median home value is $834,215.