As of August, some of the country’s largest new-home markets continued to add communities, while others saw their community counts contract from a year earlier. That divide offers an important look at where builders are expanding their footprint and where the supply of communities available to buyers is becoming more limited. Note that Zonda defines a community as anywhere five or more units are for sale.
Texas stands out for both scale and growth. Dallas had 1,488 active communities in August, up 7.4% year over year (YOY), while Houston had 1,356, up 13.2% YOY. Austin and San Antonio also posted gains YOY, albeit at more moderate rates.
However, the story is not limited to Texas.
Several Florida markets posted some of the strongest percentage gains on the map. Miami’s active community count increased 36.9% YOY, Sarasota rose 17.3%, and Naples increased 14% compared to last year. Tampa and Charleston also recorded double digit YOY growth of 11% and 11.5%, respectively.
But growth is far from universal. Sixty-five percent of top markets posted community count growth in August, while 35% declined.
Portland’s community count, for example, declined 12% YOY, while Reno fell 11.8%, Fort Collins dropped 11.6%, Jacksonville declined 10.9%, and Minneapolis fell 10.5%. New York, Baltimore, and San Diego also recorded declines from last year.
As we look ahead to 2027, many builders expect to open more communities but remain cautious about their start pace given the choppy demand backdrop.
The insights in this article were taken from the monthly New Home Market Update published in Zonda’s National Outlook.
