The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 20.6% annual gain in March, up from 20% year over year in February. The 10-City Composite annual increase was 19.5% in March, and the 20-City Composite posted a 21.2% year-over-year increase.
“Those of us who have been anticipating a deceleration in the growth rate of U.S. home prices will have to wait at least a month longer,” says Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “For both National and 20-City Composites, March’s reading was the highest year-over-year price change in more than 35 years of data, with the 10-City growth rate at the 99th percentile of its own history.”
Among the 20 cities analyzed in the March report, Tampa, Florida (34.8%), Phoenix (32.4%), and Miami (32%) reported the highest year-over-year gains. Seventeen of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending March compared with the year ending February.
“For the first time in nearly three years, the city with the most rapid growth in housing prices was not Phoenix,” Lazzara said. “As was the case last month, prices were strongest in the South (+29.8%) and Southeast (+29.6%), with every region continuing to show impressive gains."
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 2.6% month-over-month increase in March, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. In March, all 20 cities analyzed posted increases before and after seasonal adjustments.
“The release of the March Case-Shiller Home Price Index reaffirms what we already knew—housing was strong at the end of last year and the early months of 2022,” Zonda chief economist Ali Wolf says. “The problem with this dataset, however, is that the results are very backward looking. As mortgage rates rose in April and May, the housing market started to cool from the highs captured in this latest report. A deceleration of home price growth should be expected.”
