CoreLogic has released its annual Wildfire Report for 2021, detailing the evolving state of wildfires in the United States and identifying the areas of the country at the greatest risk of damage from wildfire events.
2017, 2018, and 2020 are among the worst wildfire years in U.S. history, and, as of September, this year is the sixth highest by acres burned and the number of fires in the U.S. over the past 10 years. The ongoing Dixie Fire, now burning for over 80 days, is the second largest in California history.
The report attributes a shift in wildfire intensity in recent years to the effects of climate change—in particular, the cycle of heavier rainfall, thicker vegetative ground fuel, and a period of drought. These “scorched earth” areas are then more vulnerable to mudslides, such as the 2018 mudslide in Montecito, California, that followed the 2017 Thomas Fire.
Ordinarily, California usually tops the list for wildfire risk on account of being the most populous state. However, in this year’s data approach, CoreLogic examines property-related wildfire risk as well as reconstruction resource availability, temporary housing capacity, and community economic recovery potential. Examining the possibility of a “one in 50-year wildfire” event in each of the U.S.’s 14 wildfire-prone states—13 in the West plus Florida—CoreLogic has found that Idaho and Wyoming are the two states most at risk for a prolonged recovery from a wildfire incident.
For example, if Wyoming experiences a “one in 50-year” wildfire, it would lose an estimated 821 out of its 281,937 housing units, or 0.29% of the state’s housing stock. In California, a wildfire of the same scale would destroy a smaller share of the housing stock. With a larger share of the local population displaced, and smaller volume of local resources available for rebuilding, Wyoming would need a longer recovery period than a more populous state would.
“There’s no denying a state like California is at severe risk for wildfire destruction every year, as seen in the ongoing Dixie Fire,” says Tom Larsen, principal, insurance solutions at CoreLogic. “But it’s important to acknowledge that not all communities and their catastrophic events are the same, and the road to recovery can look drastically different. Resilience is often measured as how fast you can recover from a catastrophe—and the deeper the wound, the longer it takes to heal.”
In this light, CoreLogic has identified the five counties in Wyoming and in Idaho at highest risk of wildfire damage that might have a longer and more difficult road to recovery than counties in more populous states. In Wyoming, Natrona County ranks first, followed by Teton, Albany, Fremont, and Sublette counties. In Idaho, Blaine County ranks first, followed by Ada, Bannock, Canyon, and Bonner counties.
Click here to read the full report.
