In June, the new-home market was stuck in neutral with sales softening month over month and heavy incentives usage kept activity levels above last year, according to Zonda’s New Home Market Update (NHMU).
New-home sales fell 4.2% compared to May and were up 1.8% compared to last year. The annual increase was largely due to more communities being open and builders leaning on incentives and discounts, Zonda says.
“While the market is slow and every sale may feel harder to earn, the industry will still collectively sell between 4 million and 5 million homes across the new and resale markets in 2026,” says Ali Wolf, chief economist for Zonda and NewHomeSource. “Success comes down to identifying the households that still want or need to move and helping them get to a point where they are not just comfortable buying a home, but excited about it.”
Zonda’s New Home Pending Sales Index (PSI), which accounts for fluctuations in supply by combining both total sales volume with the average sales rate per month per community, was at 133, representing a 2.6% rise from the same month last year. The index is currently 23.7% below cycle highs and on a month-over-month basis, seasonally adjusted new-home sales decreased 1.5%.
The markets that posted the best numbers relative to last year were Salt Lake City (+27.5%), Washington, D.C. (+27.3%), and New York (+26.3%). Salt Lake City was up compared to last year and was flat month over month, Zonda notes.
National home prices increased 1.1% year over year for move-up homes to $513,669 and 5.3% in the high-end market to $945,765. Prices fell 0.6% for entry-level to $315,676. Zonda says the rise among higher priced homes reflects new communities opening at higher price points, improvements in design quality, larger lots and home sizes, and/or better locations.
The Zonda Market Rating, which accounts for both sales pace and volume, indicates an “average” market nationally compared to historical performance. Across Zonda’s top 55 major markets, 14% were “overperforming,” 53% were “average,” and 33% were “underperforming.”
National quick move-ins (QMIs) totaled 35,431, down 9.1% compared to last year and 1.5% lower month over month. Over the past 18 months, builders have taken a more measured approach to spec home construction to avoid adding excess inventory amid softer demand, Zonda says. Total QMIs are 70.8% above 2019 levels.
On a metro basis, 40% of Zonda’s select markets increased QMI count year over year. The markets that grew the most were San Francisco (+100%), Cincinnati (+56.0%), and Philadelphia (+23.8%). Compared to the same time in 2019, Cincinnati, Las Vegas, and Sacramento have seen the most growth in QMIs, up 327.8%, 233.7%, and 208.3%, respectively.
