Las Vegas and the Salt Lake City-Provo corridor represent two of the largest housing markets in the Mountain West today. Both regions have benefited from an influx of migration, strong housing demand, and favorable demographic trends over the past decade, but the economic engines supporting their growth differ meaningfully.
In this write-up, we compare key economic and housing indicators across Las Vegas and Salt Lake City-Provo to better understand what is driving current performance, how builders are responding, and where opportunities may exist going forward.
The Economy
Las Vegas and Salt Lake City-Provo are both growing markets, but they sit at different points in the economic cycle and are driven by very different fundamentals. “In simple terms, Salt Lake City-Provo typically benefits from its more diversified and stable economic foundation, while Las Vegas remains more cyclical, despite ongoing diversification efforts,” said Ali Wolf, chief economist for Zonda and NewHomeSource.
As of the most recent local data, Salt Lake City overall employment grew 1.3% year over year and Provo increased 0.9%. High-income employment, defined as the combined business services, information, and financial activities industries, followed a similar pattern, with Salt Lake City growing 2.7% year over year and Provo up 0.4%.
Las Vegas, on the other hand, has seen negative job growth over the majority of the past year. However, the latest data showed a notable improvement: overall employment grew 1.8% year over year in April and high-income employment rose 3.3%.
Housing Conditions
The housing data from over the past five-plus years largely mirrors what we’re seeing on the economic side. Both Las Vegas and the Salt Lake City-Provo corridor entered the pandemic with relatively attainable home prices and a large stock of entry-level product, which allowed them to benefit from the same pandemic-era tailwinds, including strong migration, low mortgage rates, and elevated housing demand.
However, the adjustment to today’s housing headwinds has looked different for the two regions, as affordability pressures have intensified and the broader economy has slowed.
The insights in this article are just a snippet of a more in-depth research report published in Zonda’s National Outlook.
