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Based on an analysis of the nine counties that make up California’s Bay Area, Trulia’s Alexandra Lee has found signs of a slowdown in scattered cities and neighborhoods, with lower price appreciation, longer periods on the market, and falling demand with rising net out-migration.

Homes in North Bay metros (Marin and Solano counties) have some of the longest periods of the market in the entire area, up to 62 days on the market in Napa, Calif. compared to 40 days in San Francisco. Napa County’s median home value, $665,000, is also less than half of San Francisco’s $1.39 million. Homes in Sonoma ($642,000), Contra Costa ($624,700), and Solano counties ($432,200) are even cheaper.

Almost all Bay Area metros are experiencing population growth below the national rate, 0.7%, with the exception of Vallejo at 1.2%. Napa’s population fell by 0.5%, while San Mateo’s fell by 0.2%.

While jobs continue to grow in the area, albeit at a slightly slower pace than years past, the cost of housing is increasingly pushing people away and dissuading those who might otherwise move here for employment opportunities. A decline in net migration could translate into less demand for Bay Area housing and a stabilization – or even a decline – in prices.

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