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Leading multifamily real estate fund manager Origin Investments predicts a moderate recession by October 2023 and negative annual rent growth of 1% to 5% with increasing levels of real estate investor or manager distress. However, because of strong real estate market fundamentals, Origin expects rent growth to return in 2024 and build-to-rent (BTR) developments to be a leading real estate investment opportunity in 2023.

“Current conditions in the multifamily market are causing some investors to retreat to the sidelines until there is greater direction and clarity for the economy and the sector,” says David Scherer, co-CEO of Origin Investments, who compiles the firm’s top predictions each year. “But when you look at the basic fundamentals—demand and the long-term prospects for increasing rents and asset values—there is no better sector today than multifamily real estate.”

For 2022, Origin predicted that inflation would impact all factors associated with multifamily investments. Based on a 15-year track record in the industry, a management and investment team with hands-on experience, and its proprietary suite of machine-learning models, Multilytics, find out more about Origin's predictions.

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