When Amazon announced last year that it was searching for a home for its second headquarters, communities across the country were quick to pitch their cases. Seattle-based Amazon has since whittled down the list to 20 finalists but hasn't said when a final decision will be announced.
But according to a recent Zillow survey of economists and real estate experts, Atlanta and Northern Virginia are the most likely landing spots for Amazon’s HQ2.
Here’s why the economists went with Atlanta and Northern Virginia, per Zillow:
Atlanta’s geographic location – in the eastern time zone and close to southeast U.S. port cities – as well as abundant space to grow and a business-friendly regulatory climate were cited by panelists as reasons for Amazon to choose it. Housing costs in Atlanta are also among the lowest of any of the 20 finalist communities, a potential selling point to the 50,000-plus employees expected to populate the new Amazon campus, with local home values and rents well below the national medians.
Northern Virginia tied with Atlanta as the most popular choice for most likely destination, with panelists citing its proximity to policymakers in Washington, D.C., and its emergence as a growing tech sector among its strengths. The suburban D.C. community of Montgomery County, Md., also scored high in panelists rankings, for many of the same reasons, coming in third (behind Austin and tied with Denver and Raleigh). Interestingly, the city of Washington, D.C., itself scored much more poorly in the rankings, with more panelists ranking it the least likely destination than the most likely, citing its high costs and difficult regulatory environment.
The economists said Los Angeles was the least likely choice because of its high taxes, heavy regulatory environment, and housing costs. Los Angeles was joined by New York and Philadelphia as the only finalist cities to not receive at least one vote for “most likely” destination, according to Zillow.
Whichever community “wins” will surely see its housing market transformed, experts say. Zillow data shows that Seattle’s home values nearly doubled and rents increased by half from 2011 to 2015.
