John Burns Real Estate Consulting was out Wednesday morning with a rebuttal and a rebuke to the Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development report earlier this week that new-home sales fell 7.8% in January.
According to an email alert penned by Rick Palacios Jr., director of research at Burns, new-home sales in January were actually up 20% month over month and 14% year over year.
In the alert, Palacios Jr. wrote, “I suppose we should thank the Census Bureau for publishing incorrect conclusions and footnoting a 19%+/- margin of error. However, it gives our clients heartburn. Our clients pay us to be right—not to be overly bullish or bearish.”
He continued, “Our survey of 300+ home builders indicates January new home sales jumped 20% month over month and 14% year over year. For statistical accuracy, we survey the same builders monthly who as a group account for roughly 17% of all new home sales. We’ve been doing this survey for almost a decade and know as a matter of fact it is one of the best housing signals available. “
To bolster his conclusion, he offered the following comments from several of the public home builders:
- Toll Brothers: “Recall that the tax reform provisions were known in early to mid-December, but our buyers didn’t seem to blink. Contracts in January improved 21% year over year.”
- TriPointe Group: “Regarding the beginning of 2018 and higher mortgage rates…the first 6 weeks of 1Q-18 we continue to see strong demand.”
- Taylor Morrison: “We’ve seen momentum carry into the company’s strongest January yet with a pace of 2.5 [net sales per community] that accelerated throughout the month. The pace compares to 2.3 in January of 2017, almost a 10% increase on top of a nearly 24% increase last year.”
- William Lyon Homes: “2018 selling season is off to a great start, with net new home orders in January demonstrating a healthy double-digit increase YOY.”
- Beazer: “January was up YOY…the data into January has been very strong.”
Take that, bureaucratic bubbleheads.
