DALLAS, Aug. 31, 2016 — Comerica Bank’s California Economic Activity Index improved by 0.5 percentage points in June to a level of 121.0. June’s reading is 37 points, or 44%, above the index cyclical low of 84.1. The index averaged 119.8 points for all of 2015, six and two-fifths points above the average for all of 2014. May’s index reading was 120.5.
“The Comerica Bank California Economic Activity Index improved in June, breaking out of the range established in June 2015,” said Robert Dye, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “Performance was strong across most components. Nonfarm payrolls, state exports, initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), housing starts, defense spending and the NASDAQ 100 Technology Sector stock index all improved in June. House prices eased, reflecting cooler real estate conditions in Northern California.”
“Recent job growth has been close to the average of about 35,000 net new jobs per month since 2012,” said Dye. “We look for the resumption of an upward trajectory in our California Index through the second half of this year, indicating an ongoing expansion for the state economy.”
The California Economic Activity Index consists of eight variables: nonfarm payrolls, exports, hotel occupancy rates, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, national defense spending, home prices, and the NASDAQ-100-Technology Sector Index (NDXT). All data are seasonally adjusted, as necessary, and indexed to a base year of 2008. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.
