According to CoreLogic® hazard risk analysis contained in a media advisory Tuesday, a total of 172,117 homes with a combined reconstruction cost value (RCV) of more than $65 billion are at some level of risk from the wildfires in the Napa and Santa Rosa metropolitan areas.

The analysis is calculated based on homes within these two Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) and on five active fires – three in Napa (Patrick, Atlas and Tubbs) and two in Santa Rosa (Nuns and Pocket). Statewide, a total of 9.1 million homes with a combined RCV of $3.1 trillion are at some level of risk from wildfires in California.

BEYOND SAVING: A home burns to the ground during the 2006 Esperanza fire. When wildfires outpace  firefighter resources, say experts, homes that ignite are typically destroyed.
BEYOND SAVING: A home burns to the ground during the 2006 Esperanza fire. When wildfires outpace firefighter resources, say experts, homes that ignite are typically destroyed.

Of the total at-risk homes in Napa and Santa Rosa, 11,058, or 6%, with an estimated RCV of more than $5 billion are at significant risk of damage, falling in the High and Extreme risk categories, according to CoreLogic data. Although the majority of homes, 161,059, or 94%, are at Low or Moderate risk of damage, CoreLogic explained "wildfire can easily expand to adjacent properties and cause significant damage even if a property is not considered high risk in its own right."

Table 1 shows the total number of homes and RCV at risk in Napa, Santa Rosa and California. These figures are based on the CoreLogic Wildfire Risk Score (1-100), which indicates the level of susceptibility to wildfire damage and includes risk associated due to the property’s location and close proximity to other high-risk properties or areas. The higher the score, the greater the risk of damage.

Table 1: Total Number of Homes and RCV by Risk Level

CBSALow (1-50)Moderate (51-60)High (61-80)Extreme (81-100)
Napa35,1304151,0211,564
$13,512,553,932$189,688,863$444,491,582$742,193,815
Santa Rosa 122,9252,5895,7662,705
$46,290,156,192$924,485,462$2,677,530,858$1,164,512,382
California 8,322,108136,913 382,293263,152
$2,835,909,802,454$56,195,773,817$163,419,491,775$90,261,926,369

The reconstruction cost values represent estimates to rebuild the home, taking into account geography, labor and materials, and are based on 100-percent, or total, destruction. Depending on the size of the wildfire, there can easily be less than 100-percent damage to the home, which would result in a lower realized reconstruction cost. As such, this analysis represents the total and maximum risk from this event, not the predicted loss.