The San Antonio metro housing market still has long-term growth fundamentals, but the near-term environment is becoming increasingly competitive for home builders. While demand remains intact, buyers have more choices, affordability remains a challenge for some households, and rentals are competing aggressively for residents.
New-home sales softened in June, down 8.2% year over year to an annualized pace of just over 16,000 homes. The region’s pending sales index has also posted year-over-year declines each month from December to May.
County deed records point to a similar trend, with annualized new-home closings down 11.2% from a year ago in April.
While Zonda still estimates the market is modestly undersupplied, starts have pulled back dramatically, allowing the market to head back towards better balance.
As we move past this near-term choppiness, San Antonio is poised to benefit from steady demographic expansion. The metro is home to roughly 2.85 million residents, with household growth expected to exceed 1% annually through 2028. Most recently, median household income reached $84,800 and is projected to continue rising over the next several years.
Growth is extending beyond the urban core. New Braunfels has become a boomtown, supported by rapid gains in housing stock, economic output, and labor force growth. The area’s reputation for affordability, quality schools, and lifestyle amenities continues to attract both families and retirees.
The regional economy remains stable despite slowing employment growth. Total employment is expected to increase by more than 7,000 jobs this year, with stronger gains forecast for 2027 and 2028.
“A major boost comes from Toyota’s planned expansion in San Antonio,” said Bryan Glasshagel, Zonda’s principal of advisory and Texas expert. “The automaker will add a second assembly line and approximately 2,000 jobs by 2030, reinforcing the metro’s manufacturing base and supporting future housing demand.”
The insights in this article were taken from more in-depth market reports published in Zonda Enterprise.
