Charlotte Dealmakers gathered on May 20 for a Zonda Frame event that centered on a market that is viewed as a long-term winner, even as near-term friction clouds decision making. The conversation was grounded in data, but shaped by a shared question hanging over the room: if the fundamentals remain strong, why does the market feel stuck?
Charlotte’s Strong Fundamentals
The answer begins with growth. Job growth is robust, as net new jobs ranked second in the nation in 2025, behind only New York City. Additionally, jobs in high paying sectors (information, financial activities, and professional business services) gained nearly 8,000 jobs over the past 12 months, a 3.4% gain.
Charlotte continues to add more households than its long-term average of roughly 20,000 per year, including 28,000 in 2025, and that pace is expected to continue. Incomes in the metro remain above the national average, though still trail Raleigh. Jobs, demographics, and in-migration continue to support demand, reinforcing Charlotte’s reputation as a quality housing market.
From a long view, a panelist asked the audience how Charlotte would look in five years, and no one in the room believed the market would be worse five years from now.
Supply and Pricing Trends
Yet the near term tells a more complicated story. Supply today is elevated compared to the deeply undersupplied years immediately following the pandemic and are more similar to pre-pandemic norms. Homes are sitting longer, buyers have more choice, and price discovery has become more difficult. Buyers and sellers are often not aligned, which has slowed overall activity.
That tension shows up clearly in pricing trends. Resale prices in Charlotte have largely flattened over the past three years. New-home pricing has also softened, especially among larger builders focused on maintaining volume. While base prices may look flat, margins tell a different story. Incentives have grown meaningfully, raising the question posed during the event: how flat are prices really once concessions are considered?
Demand Exists, but Affordability Limits the Conversion
Affordability remains the defining constraint. Only about 26% of households can afford the median priced new home today. Five years ago, that figure was closer to 50%. While affordability has stopped deteriorating as quickly, it is flattening at historically strained levels.
On the supply side, building permits are coming off elevated levels, largely because multifamily activity was so high between 2021 and 2024. Active new-home projects have declined from a peak of 490 to about 403 today. Even so, attached for-sale product now makes up a much larger share of the market, growing from just 6% of supply a decade ago to roughly one third (35%) today. Not all of that product is landing where consumers are most responsive (either by price, quality, or location), contributing to the softness.
Land Economics Remain Challenging
The land conversation was particularly sobering. Many noted that no traditional land deals pencil today. Land prices have not declined, development costs have not come down, and infrastructure expenses remain stubbornly flat. Some land players are adapting by assembling larger positions, investing upfront in infrastructure, and delivering shovel ready sites that mitigate one of the most challenging aspects of the development pipeline.
Future Success will Hinge on Alignment
The event closed with a reminder that Charlotte’s challenge is less about absolute supply and more about alignment. The best opportunities are currently in core suburban single-family housing, especially first and second move-up product, as well as single story product that appeals to 55+ buyers. Lots in these locations are scarce and, when available, often prohibitively expensive. Solving the income to home price relationship, clarifying the value proposition, and understanding the consumers’ “why” will determine who wins today and in the future.
The insights in this article were taken from Zonda’s recent Charlotte Frame presentation.
