Housing markets with job and population as well as relative affordability fared the best in 2023, according to our annual Local Leaders List. While affordable coastal markets have struggled largely due to rising prices, markets in the Southeast continue to demonstrate strength.
This year’s list, ranking the nation’s 50 largest new-home markets by closings in 2023, includes eight markets from Texas, Florida, and North Carolina in the top 10.
Already home to the three of the top four markets thanks to Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, and Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, the place swapping of San Antonio-New Braunfels and Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta now means the Lone Star State is home to four of the top five markets, according to Zonda’s Local Leaders rankings.
“Big trends for all the markets in [Texas] continue to be strong in-migration, healthy job growth—slowing but strongly positive—and a strong business climate,” says Zonda senior vice principal Bryan Glasshagel. “These are the long-term tailwinds for Texas. It will probably be one of the top, if not the top, population and household growth state in the nation for decades to come.”
Bigger in Texas
In 2023, Dallas reported 42,840 closings, more than 10,000 closings more than the No. 2 market, Houston. The strength of Dallas is buoyed by more than 11% job growth compared to Jan 2020 and the popularity of the metro for corporate relocations, according to Zonda chief economist Ali Wolf. Glasshagel says 19 companies relocated their headquarters to the Dallas metroplex in 2023, including Landsea Homes and Fisher Investments. Additionally, Glasshagel says Dallas has a strong mix of subdivisions and large-scale amenitized master-planned communities.
Houston (+7.9%), Austin (+18.3%), and San Antonio (+8.5%) also have experienced above-average job growth since the beginning of 2020. Wolf says Houston is a “big city with relative affordable housing and developable land.” Glasshagel adds 41% of new home starts in the metro were for homes priced between $300,000 and $399,000.
Austin is a “tech and millennial magnet” while San Antonio is “a more affordable market compared to Austin” with 41% of starts for homes priced below $300,000 and 32% priced between $300,000 and $399,000.
“Seventy-nine companies announced expansions or moved to Austin in 2023, including big names like Tesla, Amazon, and Oracle,” Glasshagel says. “[However] weakness in tech, significant price increases, and reduced affordability are headwinds [in Austin].”
Florida Dominance
The presence of Florida markets has become a theme of the Local Leaders list, with 2024 being no different. The Sunshine State boasts 13 of the top 50 markets, led by Orlando-Kissimme-Sanford at No. 7 and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater at No. 8.
Orlando jumped five spots from No. 12 in 2023, growing annual closings to 14,067 in 2023 from 11,008 in 2023. The strength of the market is supported by nearly double-digit job growth since January 2020 and a diversifying economy.
Florida placed three new markets on the list in 2024: Ocala (No. 38 with 3,836 closings); Punta Gorda (No. 44 with 3,163 closings); and Naples-Marco Island (No. 49 with 2,987 closings). Additionally, the state was home to four of the biggest movers on the 2024 list, with North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton jumping seven spots to No. 13, Cape Coral-Fort Myers rising seven spots to No. 26, Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach moving up nine spots to No. 32, and Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville rising up eight spots to No. 4.
Movement at the Top
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler maintained its spot at No. 3 in the rankings, while Raleigh-Cary moved up five spots to No. 10, joining Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia (No. 9) in the top 10.
“In Raleigh, the new home entry-level sales environment is up 34% compared to pre-pandemic times, the move-up is up 78%, and the high-end is up 72%,” says Wolf. “This tells us that there are a lot more buyers exhibiting less sticker shock. Some people can buy at higher price points because they moved in from a more expensive market.”
Markets in North Carolina and South Carolina featured prominently on the 2024 list, with many benefiting from relative affordability and in-migration. Wolf says Charlotte features a concentration of high-income jobs and a “half-back” location for those moving from Florida. Wilmington, North Carolina was a new market on the 2024 list, one of seven new metros. South Carolina placed four markets in the top 50, including Charleston-North Charleston (No. 24), Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach (No. 29), Greenville-Anderson (No. 31), and Columbia (No. 40).
Washington, D.C., and Riverside-San Bernardino, California dropped out of the top ten markets, with annual closings falling by 2,264 and 3,186 homes, respectively, in 2023 compared to 2022.
“There’s really two words to describe these markets that have shifted down: supply and affordability. Both markets are land-locked with higher levels of regulation, impacting overall supply potential,” says Wolf. “With supply hamstrung, there’s been upward pressure on home prices over the years. Consumers struggling to make the math work can limit overall sales.”
Three other California markets facing similar constraints to Riverside—San Francisco-Oakland-Berkley; Stockton; and San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad—fell out of the top 50 in 2024.
Markets to Watch
Moving forward, Wolf noted that there is currently a downshift in the housing markets in Texas and Florida in 2024 as more inventories come online and consumers grapple with higher prices.
“I’m enthusiastic about the Midwest, especially Ohio and Indiana. While affordability has gone up in these markets relative to themselves, they still offer great value on the national stage with healthy local economies,” Wolf says. “Further, some markets in the Midwest have seen migration levels increase, but at a much more muted pace than a market like Austin. This has helped the markets grow at a more manageable pace.”
Wolf says high net migration metros with populations greater than 1 million, including Tulsa, Oklahoma; Richmond, Virginia; Birmingham, Alabama; and Kansas City are markets to watch.
Download a PDF of the full 2024 Local Leaders list here.
