While significant movement at the top of Zonda’s annual Local Leaders list is uncommon, the list highlights geographic trends and reflects themes that have emerged in the housing market in recent years.
The 2025 list, ranking the nation’s 50 largest new-home markets by closings in 2024, shares similarities with recent years: the strength of Texas and Florida markets and the emergence of the Carolinas as new-home hotspots.
Four major Texas markets, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin, represented 26.9% of closings among the top 50 markets, while Florida, North Carolina, and South Carolina accounted for 40% of the top markets in 2025.
However, 2024 marked a rebound for California markets, which are often highlighted for their limited supply and constrained affordability. Riverside and Los Angeles jumped up on the list, Sacramento grew closings by over 1,000 year-over-year, and Fresno was one of two new markets on the top 50 in 2025.
“Builder incentives are particularly powerful in higher-cost markets, including California,” says Zonda chief economist Ali Wolf. “The ability for builders to offer incentives has funneled a lot of consumers into the new-home markets versus the resale one.”
Lone Star Supremacy
The scale and growth of the big four markets in Texas—Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin—led the Lone Star State to claim four of the top five spots on last year’s Local Leaders list. The state repeats that achievement in 2025, though in a slightly different order.
Dallas retained its No. 1 ranking, with 43,830 closings in 2024. That’s over 9,500 more than the No. 20 market, Houston. The outlook for Dallas remains strong, with Wolf citing the market’s diversified economy and a relatively young population aging into prime buying years as key tailwinds. Houston is benefiting from affordability, a solid labor market, positive in-migration, and rising birth rates.
After breaking into the top five last year, San Antonio saw a 1,534 year-over-year increase in closings to surpass Austin and become the fourth-largest market in the country. Austin—previously a post-COVID magnet for tech workers and millennials—saw closings decline by 822 in 2024 compared to 2023.
“The big thing I look at in all four markets is how much they changed since 2019. Even though activity pulled back from peak levels, in terms of starts Dallas-Fort Worth is 42% larger, Houston, is 27% larger, and San Antonio is 51% larger,” says Bryan Glasshagel, principal, Zonda Advisory.
“The one outlier is Austin; it is 4% smaller since the first quarter of 2019,” he continues. “Austin roared during and after COVID, but affordability is a big challenge, and migration and employment growth, particularly in the tech sector and with ‘work from anywhere’ options, have slowed.”
Employment growth and migration, both key drivers of housing demand in Texas, will be important to watch, Glasshagel says. He notes employment growth is at its lowest levels in more than a decade, and the quality of job growth is mixed, with slower growth in some of the high-paying sectors across the four major markets.
Strength in Numbers
Once again, the strong presence of Florida markets among the top 50 markets was a standout feature of the Local Leaders list. Twelve Florida markets made the list, led by No. 7 Orlando, No. 8 Tampa, No. 12. Jacksonville, and No. 15 Sarasota.
“The hard data in these markets are generally stable or showing slight growth,” says Susan Heffron vice president, Zonda Advisory. “These include population and household growth, employment growth, and income growth.”
From the entertainment and theme parks of Orlando to the beaches of Tampa to the vibrant lifestyle of No. 17 Miami, the appeal of the Florida markets is strong.
In addition to attracting waves of retirees, Heffron notes that buyer demographics are shifting younger, with more young families relocating to Florida’s relatively affordable markets.
Sunbelt Surge Continues
While closings cooled year-over-year in Raleigh and the market dropped out of the top ten to the No. 14 spot, the Carolinas were once again well-represented on the 2025 Local Leaders list. In addition to Raleigh, North Carolina markets Charlotte (No. 10) and Wilmington (No. 39) as well as South Carolina markets Myrtle Beach (No. 27), Charleston (No. 28), Greenville (No. 34), Columbia (No. 40), and Spartanburg (No. 49) all made the list.
The leading markets in the Carolinas feature both strong, diverse job sectors and a range of lifestyles—from busy urban centers to tranquil communities. The region is also increasingly popular among Floridians relocating “halfway back” north, a trend Wolf says has intensified over the past 18 months.
“The Carolinas have a lot going for them. For starters, home prices in the Carolinas are still middle of the road nationally,” says Wolf. “Locals will mention things are much more expensive than they were pre-pandemic, but markets across the two states still offer great relative value to other East and West Coast markets.”
California Resurgence
The rebound of California markets is an interesting wrinkle in the 2025 data. A key driver of the strength in the state’s new-home markets is California’s persistently tight resale inventory.
“[Tight inventory] is primarily driven by tax policy and the lock-in effect, both of which create a strong incentive for current homeowners to hold onto their properties,” says Wolf. “Some individuals will hold their primary home as a rental and move into a different property. This keeps the supply of homes unchanged but increases the demand; builders have been a beneficiary of these dynamics.”
Additionally, markets like Riverside and Sacramento remain more affordable than their coastal counterparts. The growth in both markets illustrates that buyers are still willing to move slightly further out in search of affordability.
Biggest Movers
Phoenix maintained its position at No. 3 between the Texas markets, while Atlanta held steady as the sixth-largest new-home market in the U.S. Las Vegas re-entered the top 10 as the ninth-largest market, with closings increasing by 1,375 compared to 2023. Wolf notes Las Vegas benefits from low taxes, lower costs relative to other West Coast markets, and large in-migration from remote workers.
Several western and midwestern markets were the biggest movers on the 2025 list: Cincinnati jumped six spots to No. 44; Tucson moved up eight spots to No. 37; and Seattle climbed nine spots to No. 24.
Among markets outside the top 10, the largest absolute gains in new-home closings were recorded by No. 17 Miami (+1,112), No. 21 Sacramento (+1,071), No. 23 Minneapolis (+1,028), No. 24 Seattle (+1,126), and No. 37 Tucson (+ 1,116).
Download a PDF of the full 2025 Local Leaders list here.
