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Residential roofing demand in area terms is expected to expand minimally to 183.8 million squares in 2025, but demand in value terms is expected to climb at a rate of 8.2% annually to $15 billion, according to a new report from The Freedonia Group. The analysis finds the residential roofing market will be driven by the smaller new housing segment through 2025. While both new and reroofing demand will slow considerably from the rates of 2015 to 2020, The Freedonia Group projects that new roofing—particularly construction of single-family homes—will account for about twice as many gains as reroofing.

According to the Cleveland-based research organization, the prices of petroleum and related products have increased sharply since 2020, which will drive up the price of asphalt shingles and bituminous low-slope membranes and drive annual gains for roofing in value terms. Additionally, builders and homeowners are choosing generally more expensive products that offer superior performance and aesthetic properties, such as laminated asphalt shingles, solar roofing, and metal roofing, again driving up gains for roofing in value terms.

The Freedonia Group says the modest forecast in the amount of roofing actually installed is because housing starts are projected to decline from 2022 to 2025, limiting the associated roofing sales growth. Additionally, storm-related roof repair and replacement projects were high in 2020 due to multiple severe weather events, and these roofs will not require additional work in the near-term future.

According to the report, metal roofing, solar roofing, and roofing tile will experience the healthiest sales through 2025, while asphalt shingles will continue to account for the largest share of residential roofing demand in value terms. Asphalt shingles will remain popular due to the material’s low costs, favorable performance and aesthetic properties, ease of installation, and familiarity with many installers, according to The Freedonia Group.

The Freedonia Group forecasts suppliers of metal roofing and roofing tile will benefit from their products’ superior resistance to severe weather events, long product lifespans, aesthetic options, and ability to serve as cool roofing. Demand for solar roofing will likely expand significantly from its small base due to California’s adoption of building codes requiring nearly all newly built and substantially renovated structures to generate as much energy as they use.

Some smaller volume products, such as bituminous roofing, will see more rapid gains in value terms through 2025, according to the organization. Bituminous roofing will see an increase in usage, supported by the increase in housing construction in the South, where bituminous products are often specified due to their moisture resistance.

The reroofing market will account for nearly 80% of the total demand for the roofing segment, but growth through 2025 is expected to be limited by the large number of older of worn roofs that were replaced or repaired in 2020 due to the high volume of home improvement activity that occurred early in the COVID-19 pandemic and the number of severe weather events in the second half of 2020.

The full report from The Freedonia Group, Residential Roofing, analyzes roofing demand by product, application, slope, and geographic region. Roofing product demand is segmented in the report by the following product types: asphalt shingles, metal roofing, bituminous roofing, roofing tile, wood shingles and shakes, and other small volume roofing products.