Amid mixed economic signals, continued capacity constraints, tight credit, and a big question mark hovering as to the precise timing and degree to which young adults will activate as home buyers, BUILDER sister company Metrostudy unveils new forecast data that calls for relative strength in the months ahead for new home construction and sales.
According to the Metrostudy first quarter 2015 Home Building Outlook, which asserts that U.S. Housing Starts are expected to hit 1.1 million this year, with 715,000 of those being single family homes as defined by the Commerce Department. Multi-family housing starts are expected to increase to 385,000 as the rental market continues to exhibit strength.
The Metrostudy press statement addresses new home sales expectations here:
New Home Sales are expected to increase 18.8% to 519,000 this year, up from 437,000 in 2014. The best overall new home markets are Denver, Austin, and The Villages (FL) in terms of health and local new home sales forecast. The southern U.S. dominates in terms of sales volume, with the largest new home markets expected to be Houston, Dallas, and Atlanta.
“We continue to forecast a gradual recovery in construction,” says Brad Hunter, Chief Economist of Metrostudy. “Our forecast of eventual rising new home demand is founded on a reversion to long-standing typical behavior patterns. One of these relates to the “doubling-up” of households during and after an extended recesssion. But we are now seeing some evidence that those households are beginning to split apart once again, increasing demand for housing. As rising rents eventually hit the pain point, more people will begin to consider home ownership again.”
Metrostudy produces the Home Building Outlook to provide the building industry with visibility into local residential construction activity as well as official national forecasts.
