Texas has long been the center of home building in the U.S., with four of the five largest production markets in the country, led by the Dallas-Fort Worth metro. Dallas, the largest new-home market with over 43,000 annual closings, has experienced some of the same challenges as the national market during 2026.
Zonda’s Dallas Dealmakers event will shed light on the tailwinds supporting the long-term stability of the Dallas market, namely population growth and a strong land pipeline. The event will also highlight some of the recent headwinds challenging the market, including affordability constraints, weaker international immigration, and slower job growth.
“While choppy market conditions, lower margins, concerns about employment/immigration, and a growing lot supply are real near-term challenges, the longer-term tailwinds for the market are among the best of any market in the nation,” says Bryan Glasshagel, principal of advisory for Zonda. “Strong population growth, companies bringing high-quality/high-paying jobs to DFW, and the presence of some of the best public/private builders and developers in the nation will propel the market forward.”
At the Dallas Dealmakers event, Zonda advisory experts Glasshagel, Ali Wolf, Nicollette Chapman, and Tim Sullivan will provide a national and regional perspective. Additionally, representatives from American Legend Homes, Hovnanian Enterprises, Coventry Homes, Hillwood Communities, and Toll Brothers will share perspectives from on the ground in Dallas.
Below are additional highlights of the Dallas market ahead of the event.
Strengths
While affordability remains a headline challenge for the new-home market across the country, builders in Dallas have adapted by delivering more attainable product on the ground. Closings for homes on lots narrower than 50 feet continue to grow as municipalities become more receptive to higher-density development and new homes priced below $400,000 continue to show the greatest resilience in the market.
The Dallas labor market is also holding up against headwinds. While job growth has slowed, unemployment remains low, helping prevent a more significant pullback in housing demand. The market’s long-term fundamentals also remain intact. Dallas will continue to benefit from population growth, a significant supply of developable land, and one of the nation’s deepest housing pipelines.
Weaknesses
Builders are taking a more cautious approach to new supply as several demand drivers soften. Annual housing starts were down by more than 13% year over year in the second quarter, while annual closings also posted a double-digit annual decline. Quarterly starts increased modestly from a year ago, suggesting builders have found a more measured pace following the rapid expansion of recent years.
Dallas is also more exposed than most markets to fluctuations in immigration, a key source of both labor and housing demand. At the same time, job growth has slowed to levels that have historically been considered weak for the Dallas-Fort Worth metro, putting downward pressure on one of the strong points of the market.
The Dallas Dealmakers event takes place on Sept. 28 at the Ritz-Carlton Dallas, Las Colinas in Irving, Texas. Register here.
