Home Prices Continue to Fall in Real Terms in June

The nominal price gains were once again outpaced by inflation, though the gap between the metrics is closing, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices.

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For the 13th consecutive month, U.S. home prices fell in real terms, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Home Price NSA Index. Prices increased nominally by 1.5% in June, a rate that fell well below the average inflation rate of 3.5% in the month. 

“While home prices continue to decline in real terms, lower inflation and firmer nominal home price growth in June helped slow that pace of erosion,” said Rebecca Kaufman, associate director at S&P Dow Jones Indices. 

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine Census divisions, reported a 30 basis point improvement in price growth compared to May. The 10-City Composite saw an increase of 2.9% annually, up from 2.4%, while the 20-City Composite posted an increase of 2.1%, up from 1.6% in the previous month. 

Chicago reported the highest annual gain among the cities analyzed with a 6.9% annual price increase in June, followed by New York and Cleveland. Seattle posted the lowest return in June, with prices falling 2% annually.  

“This geographic divide reflects a years-long trend, with housing markets in the Northeast and Midwest regaining strength while many Western and Sunbelt markets soften,” Kaufman said.

On a month-over-month basis, the U.S. National and 20-City Composite Indices recorded gains of 0.4%, while the 10-City Composite Index posted a 0.5% gain.

“Because June typically falls near the peak of home buying season, price appreciation often moderates and market activity cools in the months ahead,” Kaufman said. “The housing market remains under pressure, with 30-year mortgage rates holding near 6.5% in June. As financing costs are kept high for prospective buyers, current homeowners remain reluctant to give up the low mortgage rates secured in prior years.”

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