It’s often difficult to describe the housing market with a single blanket statement. Fundamentals supporting continued growth in some markets are absent from others. While movement at the top of Zonda’s annual Local Leaders list is uncommon, movement lower on the list sheds light on regions that are more resilient and markets where fundamentals are working against the new-home market.
In 2026, the top seven markets on Zonda’s annual ranking of new-home markets by closings remained the same year over year. However, the year-over-year performance tells a different story. Just one of the top seven markets—No. 2 Houston—grew closings on an annual basis in 2025.
“2025 was an uncomfortable year for the housing market,” says Zonda chief economist Ali Wolf. “Policy uncertainty and persistent affordability challenges, along with many consumers saying they want to buy but do not feel like it is the right time, weighed on overall activity.”
The contraction of closings was not just a theme for the markets at the top of the list. Of the 46 markets that appeared on both the 2025 and 2026 Local Leaders lists, 29 saw closings decline on an annual basis.
“Larger, historically expensive markets or those that saw significant price growth over the past five-plus years recorded fewer sales, while smaller or more affordable areas were able to pick up a modest share,” Wolf adds.
Many historically strong and large markets, including Dallas (No. 1), Austin (No. 5), Orlando (No. 7), Tampa (No. 10), Las Vegas (No. 11), Riverside-San Bernardino (No. 16), and Miami (No. 25) saw significant contractions in closings by more than 1,500 compared to the previous year.
Dallas, Austin, and Orlando were able to retain their rankings despite recording the largest absolute decline in closings, while Miami (down eight spots), Tampa (down two spots), Riverside (down two spots), and Las Vegas (down two spots) ceded ground on the list.
Florida once again placed 12 markets on the 2026 list, though seven of the markets saw their placement move down compared to 2025.
“While [Florida and California] continue to offer a high quality of life, several shared challenges weighed on some Florida and California markets, including negative headlines, domestic outmigration, rising insurance costs, and ongoing affordability pressures,” Wolf says.
Conversely, several Midwestern markets, including Indianapolis (up two spots to No. 17), Chicago (up four spots to No. 18), and Minneapolis (up two spots to No. 21) grew closings on an annual basis. While much of the national housing market has struggled with consumer confidence and affordability challenges, the relative affordability in the Midwest coupled with strong in-migration and quality of life have benefited markets like Indianapolis and Minneapolis.
“The Midwest markets are known for their slow and steady growth, and that remains true,” says Wolf. “The region has consistently outperformed other markets, supported by home prices that are better aligned with incomes, a strong university base that feeds local employment, a sustainable rise in new construction, and a solid supply of developable land.”
West Coast Blues
After rebounding in 2025, the two largest California markets on the Local Leaders list (Riverside-San Bernardino and Los Angeles) saw closings decline by approximately 2,500 and 800 homes, respectively. Sacramento also slid down one spot on the list while Fresno dropped out of the top 50 in 2026. Affordable and attainable housing, which has often been difficult in the California markets due to high land prices and regulations, has been eroded, according to Evan Forrest, senior vice president of advisory for Zonda.
While employment has not trended downward significantly, the impacts of consumer confidence challenges have been more pronounced in markets like Riverside and Los Angeles.
“[These markets] couldn’t bring lots online quick enough and couldn’t change to more dense properties quick enough, which means they’re going to be behind,” Forrest says. “The markets may lose population, but they are so undersupplied that builders are constantly playing catch up. And [Californians] feel consumer confidence strains a lot more than other parts of the western United States.”
A ripple effect of economic uncertainty and consumer confidence challenges is less spending on leisure and travel, which has an acute impact on a hospitality-centric market like Las Vegas. The market is also less attractive to international travelers, negatively impacting the tourism market in Las Vegas. Taken together, Forrest says this led to less hiring in Las Vegas and a cumulative negative impact on the housing market. In 2025, annual closings in the market fell by over 1,800 homes.
Market Spotlight: Houston
Texas is home to four of the five largest new construction housing markets in the country, but according to Local Leaders data just one posted positive annual closings growth. Houston, the No. 2 market on the 2026 Local Leaders list, saw closings increase by more than 3,000 homes in 2025. The growth, coupled with a contraction in closings volume in the No. 1 market Dallas, leaves Houston within 3,200 closings of the Dallas-Fort Worth metro. San Antonio remained the No. 4 market while Austin maintained its position as the fifth-largest housing market.
Houston is benefiting from relative affordability compared to the Dallas metro, a solid labor market, and investments by companies moving into the metro. The market is also home to some of the highest-volume master plan communities in the Lone Star state, including Sunterra. Builders in Houston have also successfully pivoted toward smaller home sizes and smaller lot sizes to deliver lower price points.
“While residential construction activity slowed to end 2025, the Houston new-home market remains in relatively good shape,” says Bryan Glasshagel, Zonda’s principal of home building in Texas. “Demand will be choppy and the entry-level market is competitive and housing payment sensitive, but the market is not oversupplied in terms of lots and inventory levels are manageable.”
Market Spotlight: Boise
One of the “Zoomtowns” to benefit from work-from-home during the pandemic, many were quick to write off Boise after mortgage rates began rising in 2022. However, counter to expectations, Boise has continued its trajectory of positive growth in the ensuing years.
“The surge in prices since 2020 appeared unsustainable, particularly in a rising rate environment,” says Wolf. “Instead, the market proved more resilient than expected, moving from the 31st largest market in 2022 to the 23rd largest market in 2025.”
In 2026, Boise jumped two spots on the Local Leaders list and was one of 17 markets to appear on both the 2025 and 2026 list to grow closings on an annual basis. The growth from Boise seems poised to continue with business investment, in-migration, and greater travel access.
Semiconductor, computer memory, and computer data storage manufacturer Micron Technology is constructing a $50 billion, multifacility semiconductor manufacturing and research and development expansion in its Boise headquarters. The metro is also planning to add a third concourse and more passenger gates to the Boise airport.
“Boise’s [in-migration] comes from California, Oregon, and Washington. Those people are still moving, looking for more attainability, a bigger yard, a nice lifestyle, and decent schools,” Forrest says.
While Boise-based CBH Homes remains the top builder in the market, national builders, including Toll Brothers, Lennar, Sekisui House U.S., and KB Home, are becoming more interested in the Boise market.
“You have very good fundamentals in the background, coupled with economic growth, coupled with better consumer confidence,” Forrest adds. “Plus, you’re starting to get more national exposure [in Boise] with national builders coming in that have a demand and a desire to grow their market share.”
Market Spotlights: Colorado Springs and Denver
In Colorado, Denver maintained its spot as the 20th largest new-home market despite a year-over-year contraction in sales while Colorado Springs entered the list as the No. 49 market.
“Denver is starting to see some of their annual contract sales flatten a bit, but it’s still likely that there is some potential to keep declining,” Forrest says. “What Denver hasn’t been able to do because of some laws and regulations is build more attached products to [promote] attainability.”
Conversely, the Colorado Springs market has continued to grow. While the market has generally been thought of as a military town given the presence of the Air Force Academy, the Space Force, and numerous bases, Forrest says the Colorado Springs economy has diversified in recent years. The market’s manufacturing sector recently received a boon with Swire Coca-Cola breaking ground on a $475 million facility. The median new-home price in Colorado Springs is below the median price of Denver to its north.
“The market will likely bounce around a little bit, but Colorado Springs is likely to outperform Denver through the end of the year,” Forrest says.
Market Spotlights: Spartanburg and Durham
An ongoing trend in recent years of Local Leaders data is the large presence of Carolina markets up and down the list. In 2026, it was no different with five South Carolina markets and four North Carolina markets placed on the list. The region has been a popular expansion destination for builders given relative affordability, strong demographics, and business investment supporting long-term fundamentals.
In North Carolina, Charlotte (No. 8) and Raleigh (No. 12) take most of the headlines given their size and continued growth. However, in 2025, the Durham-Chapel Hill market in the state’s Research Triangle broke through as one of the nation’s 50 largest housing markets. The Durham market generated 2,376 closings in 2025 and its proximity to Raleigh suggests further growth is likely.
Owing to the renowned colleges in each city (Duke University in Durham and the University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill), the share of Durham-Chapel Hill residents with a Bachelor’s degree or higher rose to nearly 54% between 2020 and 2024 from 45.3% between 2015 and 2019, the largest gain among all U.S. metros when comparing the two time periods. Driven by high-income jobs in the life sciences, technology, and health care sectors, Durham-Chapel Hill has seen steady job growth and housing demand. The average new-home sales pace in the market has outpaced both the state and national level over the past 12 months, while the median new-home price is at a relatively affordable level below $450,000.
The fundamentals in the major South Carolina markets remain strong and helped Spartanburg earn distinction as the biggest mover on the 2026 Local Leaders list. The market jumped ten spots to No. 39 and saw annual closings increase by more than 850 homes. Spartanburg was the third-fastest growing metro in the country for the year ending July 2025, benefiting from cheaper, more available land, strategically coordinated industrial and housing development, and quality-of-life investments in its cities and towns. As a result, the per-capita income in Spartanburg rose to its highest ever level at the same time the metro’s median new-home price remained below $300,000.
Spartanburg has emerged as an important market for national builders. D.R. Horton, the largest company on the Builder 100 list, doubled down on its market leading position in the metro by acquiring South Carolina-based SK Builders in October.
Download a PDF of the full 2026 Local Leaders list here.
