At first glance, the master-planned community (MPC) market appears remarkably stable. New-home sales within MPCs accounted for roughly 28% of all new-home transactions in 2018, compared with an ever so slight decline to approximately 26% entering 2026. That consistency could suggest little has changed.
But a closer look at contract volume by price tier tells a very different story.
Over the past several years, MPCs have undergone a significant transformation in price-point mix, with affordable product steadily losing ground while higher-priced homes capture a growing share of sales. The shift reflects both the challenges of delivering attainable housing and the evolving profile of buyers attracted to large-scale communities.
The most dramatic change has occurred at the lower end of the market. Homes priced below $300,000 once represented nearly one-third of MPC sales. Today, they make up only a small portion of transactions. Even the $300,000 to $400,000 segment has contracted considerably, highlighting the ongoing difficulty of maintaining affordable inventory in many major markets. While inflation and home price appreciation have contributed to this change, the magnitude of the shift far exceeds what those factors alone would suggest.
As lower-priced offerings have become less available, sales activity has increasingly migrated into mid-range and move-up segments. Homes priced between $400,000 and $500,000 now account for a much larger share of MPC transactions than they did several years ago, suggesting that some buyers have stretched their budgets while communities have also attracted a more affluent customer base.
The strongest growth, however, has occurred in the move-up market. Homes priced from $500,000 to $750,000 have emerged as one of the dominant segments within MPCs, reflecting changing consumer preferences and the pricing realities facing builders. Rising land, labor, and development costs have contributed to a market environment where higher price points are becoming increasingly common.
Luxury homes are also gaining momentum. Properties priced above $750,000 now represent a larger share of sales than in previous years, signaling sustained demand among higher-income households seeking lifestyle amenities, community infrastructure, and premium locations often associated with MPC developments.
What to Take Away from the Trends
While affordability remains a critical industry challenge, many MPCs are finding success by catering to buyers seeking larger homes, upgraded features, and community-centered living environments.
At the same time, the trends are far from uniform across the country. Market-level differences remain significant. Houston and Dallas, the nation’s two largest MPC markets by sales volume, are experiencing distinctly different pricing trends despite both benefiting from strong population growth and new-home demand. Both markets have experienced a decline in the under $400,000 share since 2018, but Houston has maintained a notably higher percentage of entry-level home sales while Dallas has skewed significantly more to move-up price tiers.
Understanding these local variations will be increasingly important as builders evaluate land positions, product mix strategies, and long-term investments. A national shift toward higher-priced homes may be clear, but the path forward will continue to vary by market.
These trends are explored in greater detail within Zonda’s Master Plan Outlook subscription, including metro-level insights across the country’s leading MPC markets.
