Zillow posts a forecast for very modest improvement in new home sales in 2016.

Zillow senior economist Aaron Terrazas likens current status in recovery to that of an "extended adolescence," roughly the same as our term for it about 24 months ago, "iffy."

Terrazas looks at pluses, minuses, and in-betweens, and can't get sparked by a conviction that things will either improve measurably nor deteriorate much. Essentially, when he looks directionally at what's been happening in the back half of 2015, he sees more of the same in the offing, nothing truly alarming or worth getting jazzed about. He writes:

For new homes, we expect sales to retreat modestly from an unexpectedly strong October, declining 1.2 percent to 489,000 units (SAAR). Despite strong new home sales data for much of the summer, disappointing sales in June and September led new home sales to trend slightly downward on average in 2015.

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