As investors head back to work today in the new year, they may be finding the so-called "stealth" bear market of the last six to nine months is revealing itself as a true bear market.
MarketWatch staffer Victor Reklaitis writes the new year is off to an ugly start, with Chinese stocks falling and causing a trading halt: "Today’s call of the day fits the bearish mood that’s dominating 2016’s first trading session in the early going."
In a note out Sunday, MKM Partners's chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky says last year was all about having a handful of stocks that were doing well while the larger majority were having a poor year. Krinsky refers to this as the "stealth bear market." However, in 2016, the bear market could bear its teeth.
[Krinsky] highlights the Value Line Geometric Index, an equal-weighted gauge tracking about 1,700 stocks. “This index is down nearly 15% from its 52-week high made in April 2015,” writes Krinsky, who offers the chart below showing that Value Line benchmark. “Note how poor the rally was off the August lows, and the index is now just 3% above those respective lows.”
So no wonder he summarizes his outlook for 2016 with “The stealth bear is revealed.”