Housing inventory was down a bit year-over-year in 2015, but up considerably from 2012, writes Bill McBride of Calculated Risk as he explores whether housing inventory will increase, sink, or remain flat in 2016.

Inventory decreased to 2.04 million in November from 2.08 million in November 2014, and up from 1.99 million in November 2012, according to the National Association of Realtors. 

McBride is expecting inventory to tick up in the New Year. Right now my guess is active inventory will increase in 2016 (inventory will decline seasonally in December and January, but I expect to see inventory up again year-over-year in 2016). I don't expect a double-digit surge in inventory, but maybe a mid-single digit increase year-over-year.  If correct, this will keep house price increases down in 2015 (probably lower than the 5% or so gains in 2014 and 2015).

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