New York Times economics and finance columnist Neil Irwin looks at the series of bad things that would have to happen for the United States economy to slip into a recession.
It's not an outlandish set of negative scenarios that would have to occur at once, for, as Irwin points out, the "starting point" for the American economy is more fragile and modest, and the number of arrows in the quiver of the Federal Reserve to respond and use monetary policy to help offset the pain, are precious few. Irwin concludes:
This much is clear: When an economy is already vulnerable, as the United States looks to be in 2016, it takes less to tip it over the edge than when it is strong. Sorry, but not every economic story has a happy ending.