Zillow senior economist Aaron Terrazas calls the next two big housing data releases--Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales--as range bound. For sale inventory constraints in both resales and new home supply continue in a dubious role of suppressing transactions.
Terrazas notes that there are signs of promise in new home sales as inventory has ticked up a bit, but that both new and existing benchmarks have run relatively flat since mid-2015. Terrazas writes:
New home sales increased 2 percent in February to 512,000 units (SAAR), according to the Census Bureau, in line with expectations. And in a potentially promising signal for buyers, the inventory of new homes for sale reached its highest level since October 2009, although it remains well below historic norms. Our forecast suggests that new home sales should edge down in March, to 509,000 units (SAAR) (figure 2), and points to a steady monthly increase in the median price of new homes sold, from $299,000 to $309,900.
The Zillow forecast for the rest of 2016 is a flatline.