New Geography demographers Joel Kotkin and Wendell Cox are not necessarily the cheery types you'd want to spend time with at a party, but they know a lot about people patterns, and what demographics mean to the resilience of metropolitan areas in the United States.
So, as Kotkin and Cox look at places like Southern California, and, here, at the New York metropolitan area, and say "uh oh!" it may be worth a listen. The focus here is on, of course, high home prices, regulatory constraints on construction, the degradation of affordable workforce housing options, and the ultimate demise of once-vital cities. They write of New York:
With no economic engine, but with property taxes among the highest in the nation, New York's suburbs are a drag. In a recent ranking of the best places for jobs we developed for Forbes, New York City, although slipping somewhat, ranked a respectable 17th. But Northern New Jersey, Long Island and close-in parts of Connecticut were all near the bottom of the 70 metropolitan areas studied.
The result is that even as the city swells, giddy with gentrification and Brooklynization, the region continues to hemorrhage people at the highest rate of any large metropolitan area. Over the past four years, 528,000 more people left for other parts of the country than came here from them.