The personnel changeover after a Presidential election does not usually have a significant effect on the local housing market.

When a new commander in chief takes office, David Howell of the Washington Post estimates that 32,000 new jobs are going to be up for grabs across the executive and legislative branches – which raises the question of whether a massive influx of staffers from outside the area would have some effect on the D.C.-Metro area’s housing market.

In order to estimate the effect of this change, Howell estimates that half of the new hires in each branch will be relocating to the area, and that half of that number will buy a house within the year. He concludes that an election with a high rate of personnel change might create 2,560 additional home sales in the D.C. metro area – a 5% increase over the 50,000 homes sold in the area last year.

However, D.C.-area home sales data does not historically show any correlation between election year staff changeover and an increase or decrease in home sales. In fact, D.C.-area home sales fell by almost 5% in 2010, when 69 seats changed in Congress.

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