New Home sales and inventory, NAHB analysis of Census data.

National Association of Home Builders chief economist David Crowe comments on the Census' release of the latest new-home sales data, for October 2015.

Bottom line, the take-away from the release is that the tendency to infer directional trends--either positive or negative--from the latest set of numbers may be off-base. Crowe rightfully cautions that only a look across the past 24 month or even longer reveals what's actually going on, which is an agonizingly slow, but sure upward trajectory. He writes:

The sales pace is in line with NAHB’s forecast of 511,000 new home sales for 2015. The improving general economic conditions, rising employment and very affordable mortgage rates make this forecast possible.

Also noteworthy in his observation is attention to the median selling price's 6% decline, which suggests a mix-shift toward lower-priced homes (and possibly first-time and entry-level buyers).

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