National Association of Home Builders chief economist offers a good-news, bad-news set of bullet-points following the earlier Census release on tepid new home sales levels for November.
Crowe's take focuses on a 50-50 split of positives vs. negatives, as credit tightness, inventory scarcity, and lots and labor constraints all keep a lid on what would otherwise be a pretty strong flow of fundamental demand. Crowe writes on what's ahead, with an eye toward managing expectations:
New home sales are likely to continue their modest rise into 2016 as economic signals remain positive. However, sales and inventory of existing homes need to advance in order to release current home owners to buy a new home. Without this elementary feed to housing demand, the market cannot advance significantly.