Calculated Risk's Bill McBride reports on the single-family delinquency rate, which declined in September to 1.41% according to Freddie Mac. The rate is down from 1.45% in August, and down from 1.96% a year earlier in September 2014.
This is the lowest single-family serious delinquency rate seen since October 2008, and is down from the peak rate of 4.20% in February 2010. However, though the rate is steadily declining, a normal delinquency rate is under 1%.
The serious delinquency rate has fallen 0.55 percentage points over the last year, and at that rate of improvement, the serious delinquency rate will not be below 1% until the second half of 2016. So even though delinquencies and distressed sales are declining, I expect an above normal level of Fannie and Freddie distressed sales through 2016 (mostly in judicial foreclosure states).