CoreLogic analysis Molly Boesel brings a fully-loaded data arsenal to the task of examining the well-being of the Houston housing market, given, as she notes, the region’s heavy reliance oil-related jobs in the wake of the oil price collapse.
No doubt, as reflected in the Houston Association of Realtors report that October 2015 home sales are down sharply from a year earlier, the changing employment complexion has impacted the pace and price of homes in the market. But so far, other important indicators on the ultimate well-being of the Houston area, are trending in the A-Okay range. Boesel writes:
Mortgage performance in the Houston area has not shown signs of weakness. One of the earliest measurable indications of mortgage performance is the transition from being current on a mortgage payment to being 30 days past due. Historically, this so-called current-to-30 transition rate is sensitive to market stress, as can be seen in the accompanying graph with jumps in the rate after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and after the sharp drop in oil prices at the end of 2008. For now, the current-to-30 transition rate is holding strong, with the rate near 15-year lows through August 2015, nearly a year after oil prices started to fall.